(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) Investorideas, a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.
The USD/JPY continues to test new record levels, surpassing 157.00 today, Friday, amid a clear divergence between the monetary policies of the U.S. federal Reserve and the bank of Japan. This divergence, in my view, has become the primary driving force behind the pair's performance, reflecting the impact of the significant gap in policy approaches between the two countries.
The Bank of Japan's cautious stance on raising interest rates, keeping them at 0.25%, reflects hesitation amidst weak inflation and unsustainable wage growth. The bank's decisions remain contingent on wage negotiations expected to materialize in Q1 of next year, which weakens the yen's appeal against the U.S. dollar.
Moreover, recent statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, linking any future moves to additional data on wages and economic growth, have deepened market uncertainty. As a result, the yen has seen broad declines, with investors selling the Japanese currency against other major currencies.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's position appears clearer and stronger, bolstering the U.S. dollar. Despite the recent 25-basis-point rate cut, the Fed hinted at a more hawkish outlook, including a possible reduction in the number of rate cuts in 2025. This stance, in my opinion, has driven up yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, enhancing the dollar's appeal as a haven for investors. This continued support from the Fed has propelled the dollar to reach elevated levels against the yen, with a clear trend towards the 158-160 range in the near to medium term.
I also believe the Bank of Japan's recent moves reflect both internal and external challenges. Internally, the bank faces the dilemma of achieving sustainable inflation at its 2% target while maintaining stable economic growth, requiring a measured response to any shifts in its monetary policy. Externally, the bank contends with indirect pressures from global markets, as the yen's depreciation undermines the competitiveness of Japanese companies and increases import costs, further burdening Japanese households.
With USD/JPY surpassing 157, attention is increasingly focused on the Bank of Japan's ability to intervene in the market to stabilize the currency. The bank's previous experience with interventions near the 160 levels shows it still has the tools to address these challenges. However, adopting a bolder approach may become necessary shortly. This scenario could find support from the U.S. Treasury Department, which may turn a blind eye to interventions given the challenges faced by the global economy.
From my perspective, the current environment presents both opportunities and challenges for investors. I anticipate the USD/JPY's upward trend to persist, driven by structural factors and divergent monetary policies. However, any sudden shift in the Bank of Japan's policy toward tightening or the release of economic data supporting a rate hike could reshape the market and push the pair toward lower levels.
Additionally, the expected delay in Japan's rate hikes until early 2025 may leave the yen in a weakened state for an extended period unless market dynamics shift significantly. This scenario will continue to support carry trades, a key driver of yen weakness, as investors leverage the interest rate gap between Japan and other markets to achieve higher returns.
In conclusion, the relationship between the dollar and yen reflects more than just interest rate differentials; it mirrors deeper shifts in the global economy and monetary policy. While the dollar benefits from the sustained support of the Federal Reserve, the yen faces structural challenges requiring innovative responses from the Bank of Japan. As the pair continues to test new record levels, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will remain the decisive factors in determining its future trajectory.
Technical Analysis of (USDJPY) Prices:
The USD/JPY pair has experienced robust gains after breaking above the previous high at 156.74, marking a clear end to the corrective phase and the beginning of a new bullish trend from the yearly low of 139.57. This performance reflects strong momentum from the bulls, who have capitalized on the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Interestingly, surpassing this technical barrier increases the likelihood of further gains, with the next resistance level at 157.86 in focus. This solidifies the upward trend as the most probable scenario in the short term.
USDJPY - MT4 Prices Chart -XS
The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels underscores the continuation of its accommodative monetary policy, further widening the gap between the monetary approaches of the two central banks. This divergence remains a key factor exerting pressure on the Japanese yen, enhancing the dollar's appeal. However, signals from the Bank of Japan regarding its future strategies could moderate the pace of movement in the near term.
From a technical perspective, daily indicators suggest overbought conditions, which may prompt investors to take profits, leading to a potential correction following the sharp rally. Nevertheless, nearby support levels appear strong, and any short-term downside moves could be viewed as buying opportunities, bolstering the likelihood of continued upward momentum. Investors should closely monitor potential corrective levels around 155.50, where support might reemerge to reinforce the positive trend.
In the near term, the primary focus will be on the pair's ability to achieve a sustained break above 157.86. If successful, this could pave the way for further gains toward new record highs. Conversely, any pullbacks are likely to remain controlled as long as the price stays above the key support zone at 154.30, keeping the bullish scenario as the dominant outlook supported by both technical and fundamental analyses.
Support Levels : 156.723 - 155.803 - 154.228
Resistance Levels : 158.563 - 159.483 - 161.058
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