Bitter Erdogan-Natanyanu Rivalry Is Emerging Over Syria's Future

Meanwhile, Israel has taken advantage of the power vacuum in Syria to advance its territorial and security ambitions. It has launched a land incursion into the Syrian side of the strategic Golan Heights and has executed a massive bombardment of Syria's military assets across the country.

Israel's foreign minister said destroying these assets – which included ammunition depots, fighter jets, missiles and chemical weapons storage facilities – was necessary to ensure they didn't fall into the“hands of extremists” that could pose a threat to the Jewish state.

Turkey sees Israel's recent actions in Syria and the occupied Golan Heights as a land grab . Israel's actions have also been denounced by Arab countries, who demand Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected.

Israel is clearly concerned about the rise to power of an Islamist group and the transformation of Syria into a jihadist state.

This is despite the fact that HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has signalled he does not want conflict with Israel. He's also pledged not to allow any groups to use Syria for attacks on Israel.

At the same time, al-Sharaa has called for the withdrawal of Israel from Syrian territory according to a 1974 agreement that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

Erdoğan, Turkey's moderate Islamist president, has long been a supporter of the Palestinian cause and a fierce critic of Israel . But tensions have significantly escalated between the two sides since the start of the Gaza war.

Erdoğan has called for an Arab-Islamic front to stop what he's called Israel's“genocide” in Gaza. He has equally berated Israel's invasion of Lebanon earlier this year.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, has lashed out at Erdoğan over the years. He has called him a“joke” and“dictator” whose jails are full journalists and political prisoners. He has also accused Erdoğan of committing a“genocide” of the Kurdish people.

Washington, which is allied with both Turkey and Israel, has launched intense diplomatic efforts to ensure that HTS moves Syria in a favourable direction . It is keen to see a post-Assad system of governance aligned with America's interests.

These interests include HTS's support for America's Kurdish allies in northeast Syria and the continued presence of 1,000 American troops in the country. The US also wants HTS to continue to prevent the Islamic State terror group from regaining strength.

The US will also have to manage the emerging geopolitical rivalry between Israel and Turkey in Syria.

Some observers have not ruled out the possibility of an Israeli-Turkish military showdown, should Israel turn what it calls its temporary occupation of the demilitarized zone on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights into a permanent territorial acquisition.

This is not to say a war between them is imminent. But their clashing interests and the breadth of mutual hostility certainly have reached a new level.

For Iran, Assad's ouster means the loss of a critical ally in its predominantly Shia“axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States.

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The Iranian regime had worked hard to build this network over the last 45 years as a fundamental part of its national and wider security. It had propped up Assad's minority Alawite dictatorship over the Sunni majority population in Syria at the cost of some US$30 billion (A$47 billion) since the popular uprising against Assad began in 2011.

And with Assad now gone, Iran is deprived of a vital land and air bridge to one of its key proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Assad regime's sudden demise is now causing soul searching in Tehran about the wisdom of its regional strategy – and whether it will have any significant role at all in the new Syria. This seems unlikely, as al-Sharaa (the leader of HTS) has declared his disdain for both Iran and Hezbollah.

Al-Sharaa has prioritised the establishment of a publicly mandated Islamist government and Syria's reconstruction and national unity over a conflict with Israel, Iran's arch enemy. This will no doubt lead to contention with the hardliners and reformists in Iran.

Only time will tell how all of this will play out. At this stage, the future of Syria and the region hangs in the balance. And much depends on whether HTS leaders will move to set up an all-inclusive political system and unite a Balkanised Syria.

Amin Saikal is an emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian studies at Australian National University .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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