(MENAFN- Asia Times)
Is the“smart” money still fleeing China? Whether it's wise to leave Asia's biggest Economy is debatable. What's not is that the mainland billionaire emigration trend continues and that their ranks have thinned by more than a third in just the last three years.
The latter dynamic, tracked by research group Hurun, spotlights how the fallout from the last few years of government crackdowns, slowing economic growth, volatile equities and property collapse is catching up with Xi Jinping's policymakers and complicating their efforts to counter Wall Street worries that China has become“uninvestable.”
To be sure, the“avoid-China” vibe isn't what it was, say, six months ago. As Nicholas Colas, co-founder of research firm DataTrek, notes, the recent“surprise announcement of aggressive fiscal and monetary policy action is spurring a reappraisal of the view” that Chinese equities are uninvestable.
“China's leadership has finally acknowledged that the country's economy needs much more monetary and fiscal stimulus if it is to achieve its growth potential over time,” Colas says.
Billionaire David Tepper has been making his own headlines by declaring it time to buy“everything” in China. And after“running around the world” in recent weeks, Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, says that“for some investors who haven't really looked at China over the past one to two years, certainly, the interest level has picked up a lot”
As Lau tells the
South China Morning Post,“I'm not saying everyone is buying. But the level of interest has picked up a lot, very much consistent with the flows and positioning.” He's among many who now see“upside” for Chinese equities.
Where this leaves China's remaining billionaires in US dollar terms – Hurun says there are now 753 versus a peak of 1,185 in 2021 – is debatable. What's clear, though, is that the stakes surrounding next week's gathering of the standing committee of National People's Congress are rising.
Rarely has there been a better opportunity for Xi's inner circle to reassure the billionaire set at home and global funds abroad.
“The announcement of the NPC Standing Committee meeting for
November 4-8
reflects Beijing's strategic approach to the major economic policy U-turn underway,” says economist Diana Choyleva at Enodo Economics.
Choyleva noted that“by scheduling the meeting immediately after the US presidential election
on November 5, the Chinese leadership has positioned itself to announce fiscal measures with full knowledge of the electoral outcome, enhancing its ability to manage market expectations and responses effectively.”
Next week's confab will“allow Chinese policymakers to fine-tune their announcements and potentially adjust the scale or presentation of stimulus measures based on the new geopolitical context,” she says.
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