China, Russia Subs Surface In Unison While Keeping A Distance

China and Russia's simultaneous submarine technology advancements are not just displays of their respective naval modernization but also strategic moves to challenge the US's naval dominance in critical regions.

In an
October 2023 paper for the Naval Association of Canada, Edward Feltham mentions that China's modernization of its submarine fleet has become a key pillar of its naval strategy in the Pacific, focusing on power projection and sea control.

Feltham notes that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has built its strategy around advanced submarines, including SSNs, conventional diesel-electric submarines (SSKs), and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).

He states that SSKs are employed for controlling the seas around Taiwan, SSNs safeguard sea routes and extend China's reach into the Indian Ocean, and SSBNs offer a second-strike nuclear capability, providing China with versatility in protecting its territorial assertions and projecting power beyond its nearby waters.

As for Russia's submarine strategy in the Pacific, Nicholas Compton mentions in his March 2021 postgraduate thesis that Russia's submarine fleet plays a pivotal role in its Pacific strategy, primarily through strategic posturing.

According to Compton, the Russian Navy has replaced its aging Soviet-era submarine fleet with technologically advanced nuclear-powered submarines like the Borei SSBN and Yasen nuclear cruise missile submarine (SSGN) classes. These submarines serve multiple roles, including nuclear deterrence and power projection in the Pacific.

He says Russia aims to establish a strong naval presence in the Pacific and Arctic regions by deploying advanced submarines to assert control over contested areas and safeguard its interests, especially in the resource-rich Arctic.

Additionally, he mentions Russia's focus on hybrid warfare, which includes the potential use of submarines to sever or tap undersea cables , demonstrating their versatility in conventional and unconventional operations.

China and Russia's shared emphasis on the importance of advanced conventional and nuclear-powered submarines
for their naval strategies in the Pacific suggests a potential for cooperation in submarine design, strategy and tactics.

Asia Times reported in October 2023 that China and Russia are collaborating on developing the Type 096 SSBN, a next-generation vessel that will enhance China's strategic capabilities against the US and its Pacific allies. This cooperation leverages Russian expertise to improve China's submarines' stealth and operational effectiveness.

Russia's proficiency in hybrid warfare, which includes using submarines to disrupt undersea infrastructure, could benefit China as it extends its influence into the Indian Ocean and beyond. The ability to conduct unconventional naval operations would give China a strategic advantage.

Both countries have shared interests in controlling strategic maritime areas, like the Taiwan Strait for China and the Arctic for Russia. Their submarine fleets allow them to prevent adversaries' access to these disputed areas, with collaborative drills enhancing their capabilities to operate in these regions and extend their influence beyond their waters.

Despite their growing naval cooperation, China and Russia are treading carefully due to underlying tensions over technology transfer and strategic autonomy, preventing them from fully committing to a formal alliance.

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In a June 2022 article for Trends Research & Advisory, Ash Rossiter mentions that Russia is concerned about China reverse-engineering its military equipment. Rossiter says Russia remains wary of China's ability to copy its technology, undercutting its arms sales and potentially surpassing it.

For instance, he mentions that China's Yuan-class submarine, which was sold to Pakistan, undoubtedly had elements from Russia's Kilo-class submarine.

He notes that
this dynamic complicates China and Russia's strategic partnership, as Russia must navigate the benefits of cooperation against the potential long-term disadvantages of empowering a technologically competitive China.

Elizabeth Wishnick mentions in an October 2022 China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) article that despite periodic rhetoric about closer ties, Chinese and Russian officials have shied from a full-blown alliance, wary of the limitations such a relationship might impose on their strategic autonomy.

Wishnick says this ambiguity is reinforced by differing perspectives within each country on the benefits of a formal alliance. She points out that China emphasizes“partnerships rather than alliances” in its official documents. While Russia echoes this sentiment, Wishnick notes, it has occasionally hinted at the possibility of deeper cooperation.

She highlights that the strategic collaboration between China and Russia is dynamic yet cautious, steering clear of an official alliance to safeguard each nation's strategic autonomy.

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