N Korea Escalates From Arms To Boots On The Ground In Ukraine

While North Korea's military personnel numbers in Ukraine are difficult to ascertain, a June 2024 The Telegram article notes that, in line with a mutual defense pact signed that month, North Korea planned to send three of its ten engineering brigades
as part of an agreement under which Russia will pay North Korea US$115 million annually. North Korea may thus have as many as 15,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

In response to North Korea's boots on the ground in Ukraine, Ellie Cook and John Feng mention in a Newsweek article this month that Ukraine has intensified its targeting of Russian ammunition depots, focusing in particular on those supplied by North Korea.

Cook and Feng note that since late summer, Ukraine has struck several vital sites, including a large depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh and another in Soldatskoye, destroying munitions provided by North Korea.

Further, they say that in mid-September Ukraine targeted a depot in Mariupol, followed by hits on storage sites in Tikhoretsk and Karachev, both of which housed North Korean supplies.

Cook and Feng note that the
Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (GUR) has been instrumental in these operations, aiming to disrupt Russia's logistics and reduce its artillery capabilities.

However, they point out that Ukraine remains frustrated by Western allies' reluctance to approve long-range-strike weapons, which could further enhance its ability to hit deep inside Russian territory.

While Ukraine intensifies its missile strikes on depots filled with North Korean munitions, NATO's ongoing reluctance to provide long-range weapons and the ever-present threat of Russian nuclear weapons complicates Ukraine's bid for a decisive victory under its“Victory Plan.”

In September 2024, RBC-Ukraine reported that Ukraine's Victory Plan, as outlined by Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, is a strategic blueprint for modern warfare against Russia.

While the plan's specifics remain vague, Podolyak emphasized that it was not a mere proposal but a clear understanding of the necessary military tools, quantities and costs to conclude the war effectively. He stressed the importance of international support, urging partners to stop fearing Russia's propaganda about nuclear red lines and escalation.

RBC-Ukraine states that President Volodymyr Zelensky intends to present the plan to US President Joe Biden to clarify whether Ukraine's allies are committed to a Ukrainian victory or merely to contain Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression.

Podolyak warned that the cost of war with Russia would escalate if not addressed promptly, advocating for a principled decision to support Ukraine fully. The report says the plan underscores the need for a unified and resolute stance against Russian aggression to ensure a fair and lasting resolution.

As for NATO's position on the Ukraine war, in a Politico article this month, former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reflected on the alliance's cautious stance regarding providing long-range munitions to Ukraine for strikes deep inside Russian territory.

Stoltenberg emphasized that while NATO allies have delivered unprecedented support to Ukraine, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), cruise missiles and advanced battle tanks, there remains a significant debate over the use of these weapons on Russian soil.

He says NATO aims to uphold Ukraine's right to self-defense, including targeting legitimate military sites in Russia. However, he points out that there are varying stances within NATO, with some members imposing restrictions to prevent further escalation.

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He stresses that it is crucial to avoid self-fulfilling prophecies and ensure ongoing US support for Ukraine, irrespective of the upcoming US presidential election outcome.

Reuters reported in September 2024 that Putin had announced significant changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, emphasizing that any conventional attack on Russia, supported by
nuclear power, would be considered a joint nuclear assault.

The report says that this shift, revealed during a UN Security Council meeting, broadens the conditions under which Russia might deploy nuclear weapons.

Reuters notes that Russia's 2020 doctrine allowed for a
nuclear response only if the state faced existential threats from nuclear or conventional attacks.

However, it points out that the updated policy now includes aggression against Russia or its ally Belarus, even with conventional weapons, as grounds for a nuclear response.

As per the report, Putin highlighted that these amendments are a reaction to deliberations in the US and UK about enabling Ukraine to strike Russia with Western missiles.

Apart from threatening the use of nuclear weapons, Russia may choose to escalate in other ways. Reuters reported in September 2024 that Russia is considering sending advanced P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen, with Iran acting as a broker.

Reuters notes that while the missiles would significantly enhance the Houthis' capability to threaten commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, Russia has not yet decided to make the transfer.

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