US, China In A Tit-For-Tat Military Basing Battle

Reuters notes that Chinese warships have been training the Cambodian Navy at Ream since December 2023, while the US has urged Cambodia to prevent any foreign country from having exclusive access to the base. Ream, previously used for the joint US-Cambodia naval exercises canceled in 2017, saw its US-built facility demolished in 2020.

Channel News Asia mentioned in September 2024 that upgrades to the
Ream Naval Base benefit China more than Cambodia, as Cambodia lacks the military capability to utilize the enhanced facilities fully. BBC says while Ream may not significantly improve China's power projection, it could aid in intelligence gathering.

As for the base's impact on Cambodian sovereignty, BBC says while a long-term Chinese presence at Ream is likely, it may not violate Cambodia's constitution as the base is not formally leased to China and Chinese forces could be present on a rotational basis – similar to the US's Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the Philippines.

Asia Times mentioned in April 2023 that China's establishment at Ream Naval Base has the potential to offset, oversee or potentially anticipate the presence of US naval forces in the vicinity of nearby Singapore, which regularly accommodates the rotational deployment of US Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.

China may also utilize the Ream Naval Base and its existing southern naval bases to encircle Vietnam in the South China Sea, stretching the capacity of Vietnam's Navy and Maritime Law Enforcement organizations. China and Vietnam have various territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

Moreover, the
Ream Naval Base could support Chinese activities near Indonesia's Natuna Islands. Although China has recognized Indonesia's ownership of the Natuna Islands, it has asserted that the waters surrounding the islands are within its“traditional fishing areas,” leading to tensions between the two sides.

Cambodia might see China's involvement at the Ream Naval Base as protection against its more powerful neighbors, Thailand and Vietnam. This situation may have led Cambodia to support China's interests in return for security assurances and economic benefits.

China's enhanced presence at
Ream is part of a larger basing tit-for-tat with the US, as both superpowers seek to entrench their positions in strategic regions that can serve as forward operating outposts against each other in a conflict scenario.

In September 2024, Asia Times mentioned that the US's indefinite deployment of the Typhon missile system in the Philippines has significantly escalated US-China tensions in the Pacific.

Initially brought in for joint exercises in April 2024, the Typhon system, which is capable of launching Tomahawk and Standard Missile-6 weapons with range to reach mainland China, will remain in the northern Philippines, according to US and Philippine officials.

This move, aimed at bolstering regional deterrence, has drawn sharp criticism from China, which has warned the deployment will destabilize the region and spark an arms race.

The deployment aligns with the US's extended deterrence strategy and Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) concept, which disperses forces to enhance survivability and lethality. However, the Philippines' lack of air and missile defense assets could pose operational challenges, potentially requiring more US assets for protection.

The political landscape in the Philippines, marked by divisions between pro-US and pro-China factions, adds another layer of complexity, with future US defense initiatives potentially hanging in the balance as the
Philippines' mid-term elections approach next year.

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While the Typhon missile deployment in the Philippines may have caused consternation in China, the US isn't the only one involved in controversial, sensitive operations and deployments on its adversaries' doorstep.

In July 2024, Asia Times mentioned that China has significantly bolstered its intelligence-gathering capabilities by establishing multiple spy bases in Cuba.

These facilities, strategically located in Bejucal, El Salao, Wajay and Calabazar, are designed to monitor sensitive communications and activities along the US southeastern seaboard, which hosts numerous military bases and space launch centers.

The largest site, near Bejucal, has a Cold War history while the El Salao site features a large circularly disposed antenna array (CDAA) for enhanced surveillance. The Cuban outposts underscore China's ambition to expand its global intelligence footprint, including near US shores.

The development has raised concerns among US policymakers and regional partners about the long-term strategic implications, particularly in the context of a potential US-China conflict over Taiwan.

Before any conflict, China may send military personnel to its Latin American partners, such as Cuba, to gather intelligence and support special operations.

These personnel could potentially disrupt critical US facilities, observe military operations or even plan attacks against the US mainland. Additionally, China might use its personnel to create regional crises that could affect the US, such as disrupting supply chains or causing political instability in US partner countries in advance of any operation against Taiwan.

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