Middle East War Could Swing US Election For Trump

The US was again hopeful of a peace deal in September, but Netanyahu torpedoed the deal with last-minute demands. These included for armed men to be barred from returning to northern Gaza during an eventual ceasefire and that Israel retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow band along Gaza's border with Egypt .

Reports suggested that Netanyahu was deliberately undermining negotiations and using delay tactics over the summer. But what is the political purpose of delaying peace?

Netanyahu is banking on Trump winning the election, and having a US partner that is easier to manipulate than Biden. Netanyahu has boasted that he was able to convince Trump to exit the Iran nuclear deal , a historic deal engineered by the Obama administration in 2015 to lift economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. It was considered by many to be a step towards global peace .

Trump's controversial decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem - which Palestinians also claim as their capital – was also a symbolic win for Netanyahu and the Israeli right.

Despite Trump's unconditional support for Israel, many Arab Americans are more likely to vote for Trump (or at least vote against Kamala Harris) in November .

Jewish American voters have traditionally tended to vote for the Democratic ticket, with about 70% of Jewish citizens identifying as Democrats . This is important as there are sizeable Jewish communities in swing states such as Pennsylvania (with 433,000), Florida (with 672,000), and Georgia (with 141,000 ).

Recent polls show that 72% of Jewish voters back Harris against Trump . And while 75% of American Jews claimed that Israel is important to them, it ranked only 9th on a list of 11 issues in terms of importance to shaping their vote.

The same can't be said for the Arab-American communities, who have been devastated by the conflict in Gaza (and now Lebanon) and are angered by Biden's response to Israel. While the US has used diplomatic pressure to agitate for a ceasefire, it also recently sold Israel another US$20 billion in fighter jets and other weapons. This is one of the largest military packages since the beginning of the Gaza war .

Given a list of ten issues and asked to choose the three most important, 60% of Arab Americans polled chose Gaza, and 57% said the war in Gaza would influence their vote. This may explain why nearly 80% of Arab American voters have an unfavourable view of Biden (based on a poll taken in May). Only 55% have an unfavourable view of Trump .

Though Arab Americans don't necessarily like Trump, they cannot stomach supporting an administration that failed to prevent the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza . They may either not vote or vote for a third-party candidate .

And Netanyahu is banking on this issue affecting the election in Trump's favour. Arab Americans constitute a critical voting bloc in swing states, such as Pennsylvania (126,000 Arab Americans) and Michigan (392,000 Arab Americans ).

It's likely that the Jewish American vote from 2020 to 2024 won't change, but Arab Americans supported Biden nationally with 64% support in 2020, and in the key state of Michigan provided Biden with almost 70% support . This could tip the balance against Harris in a state that Biden won with only 154,000 votes.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

Many Arab American voters are not convinced that Harris represents a departure from Biden - and in a poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations in Michigan in August, only 12% of Muslim American voters in that state support Harris . These voters are demanding a ceasefire.

But we won't see a ceasefire anytime soon. Prior to the October 7 attacks on Israel, Netanyahu was fighting for his own political survival. Netanyahu, who is still on trial for criminal charges for fraud, bribery and breach of trust, has repeatedly discredited democratic institutions and was resisting public pressure to step down.

After the attacks in Lebanon, Netanyahu is now rebounding in the polls in Israel . Netanyahu is facing less internal pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza, and is gaining more confidence that aggression will pay off.

In our view, the more aggressive Netanyahu's government is (both in Lebanon and in Gaza), the greater the likelihood that Trump will be elected. This all works perfectly for Netanyahu as it could allow him to look beyond Lebanon and target his biggest obsession: Iran .

Natasha Lindstaedt is professor, Department of Government, University of Essex and Faten Ghosn is professor, Department of Government, University of Essex and Non-Resident Fellow at Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Arizona, University of Essex

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

Already have an account? Sign i Sign up here to comment on Asia Times stories OR

Thank you for registering!

An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link.