Calls Mount In Philippines For US To Counter China At Sea

A total of 203 ships were spotted between August 27 to September 2, with as many as 71 deployed near the Sabina Shoal alone.

With China expanding its presence and steadily eroding the Philippines' patrol and resupply capacity through ship collisions, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's administration is now openly debating a major reset of its US defense alliance.

The Philippine Navy's Rear Admiral Alexandar Lopez has openly called for a“review” of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) while Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr has lobbied for“collective multilateral action” with likeminded regional states to counter China.

Following a meeting with US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) chief Samuel Paparo, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief General Romeo Brawner Jr said that joint patrols and resupply missions with the US would be a“last resort” if China continues to escalate tensions.

Despite such hedging, the risk of armed conflict is clearly rising. China likely fears another strategic setback after Manila recently successfully fortified its de facto military base, the grounded BRP Sierra Madre vessel, over the contested Second Thomas Shoal.

After repeated interceptions and aggressive interventions failed to deter Manila, Beijing settled for a vague“interim agreement” that allowed both sides to save face and de-escalate tensions for what proved to be only a short period.

Now, China likely fears an emboldened Philippines will try to replicate its success at the Second Thomas Shoal by fortifying its claimed features across the Spratly Islands, including over the Sabina Shoal.

Although China has so far refrained from kinetically imposing its will, it has been relatively successful in degrading the Philippines' resupply and patrol capacity by damaging its vessels.

Top Philippine strategists such as retired Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong have warned against China's“mission kill” tactics , whereby Beijing deliberately damages the Philippines' limited fleet of high-performance vessels .

In response, Philippine officials are doubling down on efforts to build and acquire a variety of new coast guard and naval vessels from various partners and allies.

So far, Japan and South Korea have been the Philippines' biggest suppliers of coast guard and naval assets, respectively. But there is now a push for Manila to rapidly acquire more affordable, recently retired US naval assets.

Last month, the two allies held the first-ever“two plus two” summit in Manila, at which US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a new US$500 million defense aid package for the Philippines.

That sum, of course, won't be nearly enough to counterbalance China's rising military and naval might, as upgrading the Philippines' laggard naval capacity will take years and cost billions.

As such, there is a push to upgrade the Philippine-US alliance in ways that have a more immediate deterrent effect since China has been deploying varying and increasingly aggressive forms of“gray zone” tactics. Philippine critics say China has deployed the tactics with“strategic impunity.”

Admiral Alexander Lopez, spokesman of the National Maritime Council (NMC), a body that oversees interagency coordination on Philippine strategy in the South China Sea, recently called for a formal“review” of the MDT.

“For me, the MDT has been there since 1951, and since then, the strategic landscape has changed so much. So, maybe it's high time now to make the review,” Lopez explained, without clarifying what exact provisions he sought to revise.

For some Filipino strategists, the US could revise its definition of“armed attack” and, accordingly, adjust the threshold for formal activation of mutual defense obligations to deter and blunt China's gray zone tactics.

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The Philippine military chief, however, has insisted that so far his forces are capable of handling the situation.“The attitude of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, as dictated by the Philippine laws, is for us to first rely on ourselves,” Brawner said following a meeting with the visiting US INDOPACOM commander.

“We are going to try all options, all avenues that are available to us in order for us to achieve the mission...in this case, the resupply and rotation of our troops.”

Nevertheless, he clarified that if China continues with its aggressive maneuvers, the Philippines will“then seek for other options when we are already constrained from doing it ourselves,” including joint patrols and resupply missions with American forces.

Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro Jr has underscored the importance of a multilateral approach, one which ensures the Southeast Asian nation maintains its strategic autonomy, avoids overdependence on the US and leverages its wide network of strategic partnerships.

“The antidote is a stronger collective multilateral action against China,” Teodoro said, emphasizing that diplomatic statements alone from key allies are“not enough” to deter China.

Sensing growing frustration in Manila, US officials have tried to reassure their Philippine treaty ally and underscored their commitment to a more effective deterrence of China's intimidation tactics.

“We certainly have prepared a range of options and USINDOPACOM stands ready, if so called, after consultations in accordance with the treaty to execute those shoulder to shoulder with our ally,” US INDOPACOM commander Samuel Paparo said during a recent surprise visit to the Philippines.

However, he refused to provide operational details to prevent China from mounting“a countermeasure to those.”

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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