AUKUS AI Drones Shadowed By China's Tech Supremacy

Defense One mentioned this month that the US Army faces a potential shortfall in small drone production for military use, contrasting with Ukraine's robust annual output of one million first-person-view drones.

Defense One notes that despite the US Army's increasing integration of drones, inspired by Ukrainian battlefield successes, domestic manufacturers like Skydio and Teal struggle to match demand, hindered by China's market dominance and higher production costs.

The Defense One report says that the US Department of Defense's (DOD) limited assistance and slow purchasing procedures pose obstacles for startups in the drone market. Moreover, it mentions concerns about the higher cost and lower performance of US drones compared to Chinese alternatives.

However, Breaking Defense reported this month that the US had selected some systems for Tranche 2 of its Replicator program, designed to field expendable drones on a large scale. Previously, the US included the Switchblade kamikaze drone in the program.

Underscoring Australia's dependence on China for drone capability, Defense Post reported in August 2023 that the Australian government is using 3,000 Chinese-made drones with components such as cameras, gimbals and batteries blacklisted by the US for their alleged links to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Defense Post notes that this situation makes Australia susceptible to supply chain disruptions due to the lack of a sovereign drone manufacturing base. It says Australia has a mature drone ecosystem but it is only used commercially.

Notwithstanding those challenges, Defense Post reported this February that Australia has awarded contracts worth US$800,899 to 11 domestic companies to produce prototype unmanned aerial systems (UASs) for its military.

The source says such a move will further Australia's sovereign drone industry, create jobs and increase military operational effectiveness.

In March 2024, Breaking Defense reported that the UK's Royal Air Force (RAF) 216 Squadron, established in 2020 to test uncrewed aircraft, has not conducted any drone tests. The report points out that this situation contradicts the national military drone strategy's aim for rapid drone service integration.

Then-incumbent UK Defense Procurement Minister James Cartlidge disclosed the squadron's inactivity in a parliamentary statement, noting the cancellation of a scheduled trial with the Koios intelligence drone due to resource conflicts.

To inject much-needed cash into its domestic drone industry and kickstart drone production, the UK Defense Drone Strategy 2024 says that the country will invest $5.91 billion over the next two years in uncrewed capability, expedite acquisition reform, build a resilient industrial base, define digital architectures for seamless integration and foster a culture of innovation.

While the AUKUS bloc faces several challenges in upscaling drone production and has taken significant steps to address them, those moves may be too little too late.

The situation does not bode well for AUKUS vis-à-vis China, the world's largest drone manufacturer and arguably the reason for the bloc's existence.

In line with that, WSJ noted this month that while the US focused on the Global War on Terror (GWOT), China saw an opportunity to modernize its military vis-à-vis the US.

WSJ notes that AI-enabled drones are critical to China's military modernization efforts. While the WSJ report says that fully autonomous drones may be a long way off, drones with limited autonomy could be used in battle within a few years.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

The report also says that while the US leads in large, complex drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk, China is the world leader in consumer-grade drones and dominates the global drone supply chain.

It points out that China's DJI controls 72.3% of the worldwide drone market share, while the US struggles to create reliable, inexpensive small drones at scale.

WSJ points out that China's comparative advantage in manufacturing small systems gives it the edge in drone swarm tactics. It also mentions that while the US follows a man-in-the-loop approach to using AI-enabled drone swarms, its potential adversaries, such as China, may not abide by such norms.

Further, Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt argue in a Foreign Affairs article this month that the US is inadequately prepared for the emerging warfare landscape dominated by unmanned systems, AI and autonomous weapons.

Milley, until recently the US Joint Chief of Staff, and Schmidt, CEO of Google, point out that despite global competitors' rapid advancements in these technologies, the US has lagged in developing and deploying such capabilities effectively.

They attribute delays to bureaucratic inertia, outdated military doctrines and a lack of clear strategic focus on integrating AI and autonomous systems into combat operations.

They say this inadequacy is especially concerning as conflicts increasingly rely on these advanced technologies to gain an edge on the battlefield. They caution that failure to address the gaps could leave the US vulnerable in future conflicts where they argue dominance in AI and autonomous weapons systems will be crucial.

Already have an account? Sign i Sign up here to comment on Asia Times stories OR

Thank you for registering!

An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link.