Wagner Rout In Mali Puts Russia On An African Backfoot

It also laid the groundwork for Mali's coup leaders to turn to Wagner rather than Paris for its security needs.

Since entering Mali in December 2021 – and especially after the death of Prigozhin – Wagner forces have been able to claim some successes. In November, Russian mercenaries helped the Malian army retake the city of Kidal , a separatist stronghold.

That success may have led to overconfidence: As the Tinzaouaten incident shows, there are very real security challenges across Mali. Wagner's tactics, including indiscriminate violence and targeting civilians , are far from the most effective tools for addressing Mali's security crises.

Though the Tinzaouten incident was Wagner's largest known loss in Africa, it is not its first. Back in 2019, Wagner forces infamously overpromised and underdelivered in a short-lived counterterrorism campaign in Mozambique.

In that case, Wagner lasted just a few months before withdrawing after it became apparent it was ill-equipped, underprepared and too dismissive of local Mozambican military partners.

Although the recent events in Mali are not analogous to that, Wagner's abandonment of Mozambique may weigh on the minds of Mali's junta leaders following the group's latest setback.

Questions abound about whether Wagner or its successor, the Africa Corps, will remain invested in Malian security.

There is also the potential for increasing tension between the Malian army and its Russian partners over the security mission and who is calling the shots. In addition to testing that relationship now, it could also lead to friction and other problems down the road .

Russia has tried to assuage concerns in the aftermath of the Tinzaouaten attack. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov contacted his Malian counterpart to reaffirm Russia's commitment to the country.

Russia's engagement in Mali is far from altruistic. Mali is Africa's fourth-largest producer of gold. Like Wagner, Moscow wants a piece of that market. In November 2023, Russia signed an agreement with Mali to construct the country's largest gold refinery.

On the surface, it looks like this could be an economic boost for Mali, but the project's timeline is unclear. The effort also has neocolonialist undertones, despite Russia's rhetoric to the contrary .

There is, however, a scenario in which Wagner benefits from the latest setback. As several security experts of Africa's Sahel region have noted, the losses may actually help bolster Wagner's reputation with Mali's military chiefs and the Malian population in general. A willingness to fight and die alongside partners is a strong signal.

For states like Mali that have long been wary of foreign intervention, Wagner's willingness to get in the fight and take on missions that the French and Western security partners were unwilling to execute has resonated with parts of the population.

The setback for Wagner in Mali may benefit Moscow in another unexpected way. Days after the incident, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence insinuated that Ukraine may have played a role in providing intelligence to Tuareg groups .

That messaging – whether posturing or true – led Mali to cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Neighboring Niger quickly followed suit . Ukraine has since vehemently denied involvement.

Regardless, this dynamic illustrates the spillover in competition between Moscow and Kiev. Ukraine stands to benefit from Wagner's failures in Africa, forcing Wagner clients to consider the value of their partnerships with Moscow. But as Mali's reaction suggests, such efforts can clearly backfire.

Even so, for Russia, Wagner's losses create more challenges than opportunities. Moscow may be on the hook for Wagner's failures in Africa , especially as it seeks to supplant Wagner with the Africa Corps .

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

Events like those that unfolded in late July can no longer be easily explained away by the Kremlin. As John Lechner , an expert on Wagner and Russian security, noted, Moscow has allowed the Wagner brand to live on in Mali, in part to give Russia cover for these types of security failures.

How long Moscow can continue that pageantry – denying that Wagner's failures are Russia's failures too, particularly with Mali's government – is up for debate.

Despite the clear value that Mali's junta saw in a contracting with Wagner, at some point the mission will need to scale up or events like those in Tinzaouaten could become more common. This is especially likely if the Malian army seeks to continue to expand the counterinsurgency mission.

Moscow surely doesn't want to jeopardize its relationship with Mali's coup leaders in the capital, Bamako. But it is also walking a delicate balance, wary of empowering the remnants of Wagner in any meaningful way that might lead the group to act out against Moscow's interests in Africa and elsewhere.

Moreover, grand ambitions to recruit tens of thousands of Africa Corps personnel have reportedly fallen woefully short , limiting Moscow's options.

So while the Tinzaouaten incident offers a glimpse into Mali's very challenging security environment, it also highlights the limits of hitching your wagon to Russian mercenaries – be they under the banner of Wagner or reformed under Russia's Africa Corps.

Christopher Michael Faulkner is an assistant professor of national security affairs in the College of Distance Education, US Naval War College .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

Already have an account? Sign i Sign up here to comment on Asia Times stories OR

Thank you for registering!

An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link.