Labor Facing Heavy Defeat In Queensland, But Faring Better In Federal Polls

(MENAFN- The Conversation) The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample of 1,092 people, gave the Liberal National Party a 56–44% lead over Labor, a four-point gain for the LNP since the early October 2023 YouGov poll.

Primary votes were 44% LNP (up three points), 27% Labor (down six), 15% Greens (up two), 10% One Nation (up two) and 4% for all others (down one).

Labor Premier Steven Miles had a -22 net approval rating, compared with former Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's -20 rating in the October poll, with 47% of those polled dissatisfied with his performance and 25% satisfied.

This is the worst net approval for a Queensland premier in YouGov polls for The Courier Mail.

LNP leader David Crisafulli's net approval was +14, up three points from October. Crisafulli led Miles as better premier by 40–27% (he was 37–35% against Palaszczuk in the October poll).

Asked who they would prefer as premier between Miles and Palaszczuk, voters backed Miles by 53–47%. Labor voters supported Palaszczuk by 51–49%, while LNP voters favoured Miles by 57–43%.

In March, a Newspoll gave the LNP a 54–46% lead over Labor, and there were massive swings to the LNP at two Queensland state byelections.

Labor has governed in Queensland since an upset victory at the January 2015 election . But the party is now facing a heavy defeat at the October election after almost ten years in power.

Labor extends lead in federal YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll , conducted April 19–23 from a sample of 1,514 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain since March. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two points), 33% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one) and 10% for all others (steady).

Respondents were given two statements regarding Australian military commitments:

Overall, voters favoured the prepared to fight statement by 46–42%. However, younger age groups were far more inclined to be sceptical than older people. Those aged 25–34 favoured the sceptical statement by 50–34%, while those 65 and older favoured the prepared to fight statement by 60–34%.

On Monday , I covered drops for Labor in the Resolve, Freshwater and Morgan polls. Polls released since then have been better for Labor – the party improved in YouGov and regained the lead in Morgan.

In economic data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the March quarter inflation report on Wednesday. While the 12-month inflation rate slowed from 4.1% in December to 3.6% in March, the quarterly inflation was 1.0% in March, up from 0.6% in December. Persistent inflation probably explains Labor's mediocre poll ratings.

Essential poll: Coalition regains lead as One Nation surges

A national Essential poll , conducted April 17–21 from a sample of 1,145 people, gave the Coalition a 49–47% lead over Labor (including undecided voters) – a reversal of Labor's 48–46% lead in early April.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one point), 31% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down three), 9% One Nation (up three), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all others (up one) and 4% undecided (down two). Analyst Kevin Bonham said this is the highest One Nation primary vote from any pollster this term.

Albanese's net approval was steady since February at -5, with 48% disapproving of his performance and 43% approving. Dutton's net approval jumped seven points to +3, with Bonham saying this is Dutton's first positive net approval from any pollster this term. However, Newspoll gave Dutton a net approval of -15.

On Israel's military action in Gaza, 32% said Israel should permanently withdraw (down five points since March), 19% favoured a temporary ceasefire (down one), and 19% said Israel's action was justified (up one). By 29–24%, voters supported recognising Palestine as an independent state.

By a 49–26% margin, voters thought the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy would have a positive impact on Australia as a whole, but were less positive about the personal impact (36–23% positive). And by a 52–31% margin, voters supported Australia developing nuclear energy (compared to 50–33% in October).

Asked which type of energy was most expensive, 40% said renewables (up two points since October), 36% nuclear (up two) and 24% fossil fuels (down four).

By 50–38%, voters thought it unlikely Australia would reach net-zero emissions by 2050 (compared to 57–31% in October).

Morgan poll: Labor regains lead

A national Morgan poll , conducted April 15–21 from a sample of 1,617 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a reversal of a 51–49% Coalition lead from the previous week.

Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (down three points), 30.5% Labor (up 0.5), 16% Greens (up 2.5), 5.5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (steady) and 5% others (steady).

Additional questions from Newspoll and Resolve

I previously covered the last Newspoll and Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. Recently, Albanese announced a plan to have taxpayer money used for loans and subsidies for projects to help Australia transition to clean energy. Voters backed this plan in Newspoll by 56–38%.

When asked about the Israel-Gaza conflict in the Resolve poll, 46% of voters agreed it had made Australia less safe, compared to 40% in March. By a 61–12% margin, voters thought there had been a rise in racism and religious intolerance in Australia as a result of the conflict (compared to 57–15% in March).

On who Australia should support, 57% (up 12 points since November) said we should take no action, 17% support Israel (down 14) and 9% support Gaza (up two).

  • Queensland politics
  • Essential poll
  • Morgan poll
  • YouGov poll
  • Israel Palestine

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