US Stretching Out Legacy Nuclear Arsenal

The publication notes that the commission proposed various measures to address capacity deficiencies resulting from delays in modernization. One proposed measure is allocating funds for enhancements to Ohio-class SSBNs. Another is distributing existing nuclear warheads among the remaining operational nuclear platforms.

US ICBMs play a complex role in nuclear deterrence, but offsetting their usefulness are vulnerabilities that have prompted debates about their relevance compared with air- and sea-based nuclear weapons.

As for the positives, Asia Times noted in April 2023
that ICBMs act as a“missile sponge” to draw incoming enemy missiles, forcing an adversary engaging in a preemptive strike to use enough missiles to destroy widely-dispersed nuclear silos.

ICBMs also provide a first-strike capability since almost all are on alert and they can launch in minutes.

Further, Steve Fetter and Kingston Reif note
in an October 2019 War on the Rocks article
that ICBMs act as a tripwire, forcing adversaries to attack the US mainland directly, triggering mutually assured destruction. Fetter and Reif say ICBMs are a backstop to unseen vulnerabilities in the United States' sea-based nuclear deterrent.

However, they note vulnerabilities in the US ICBM arsenal, namely that they cannot survive a large-scale nuclear attack unless launched in the first 30 minutes between the detection of an incoming missile and impact, with the US“launch on attack” nuclear posture giving only a 10-minute response time.

They also say that an ICBM arsenal is redundant as US bombers and SSBNs are more than sufficient to deliver a second strike. Fetter and Reif also argue that ICBMs offer no unique advantages compared with bombers and SSBNs. Indeed, they say, ICBMs are less flexible than bombers and SSBNs.

Further, Toby Dalton and other writers of a September 2022 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace pape
argue that a non-nuclear attack on US ICBMs with hypersonic weapons would present a problem of whether to respond with nuclear retaliation. Also, Dalton and others point out that US ICBMs would have to overfly Russia to hit targets in China, opening the risk of a two-front nuclear war.

While SSBNs are considered the ultimate nuclear deterrent, the long-term US policy of disarmament, increasing costs and technological advancements may gradually call into question their relevance.

In a February 2020 article for the Australian National Security College , James Wirtz notes the American commitment to maintaining an underwater nuclear deterrent due to its survivability, second-strike capability and capability to hold targets at risk after a nuclear or conventional attack.

However, Wirtz points out that the Obama Administration's declaration of nuclear disarmament as a long-term US objective means that each new generation of US SSBNs has 40% fewer ships than the previous one, with the next-generation US SSBNs, which would be under development in 2060, numbering only seven units.

Wittz's analysis is that a combination of high costs in deploying a few warheads on an expensive system plus a trend toward nuclear disarmament may undermine support for the US SSBN program, with the Columbia class possibly being the last US SSBN. He also notes that there are talks that the US might have to make do with just 10 Columbia class SSBNs.

Most tellingly, Wirtz mentions the possibility of technological“black swans” upending the relevance of SSBNs.
Asia Times noted in March 2023
that advancements in AI, sensor technology, and underwater communication can render the oceans transparent by 2050, meaning that all types of submarines will be detectable regardless of advances in stealth technology.

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Asia Times reported in August 2023
that China claims to have developed an ultra-sensitive submarine detector that can detect near-imperceptible bubbles generated by a nuclear submarine's hull due to the magnetohydrodynamic effect.

Also,
Asia Times reported in September 2023
that China has developed a terahertz device that can detect vibrations as small as 10 nanometers made by a low-frequency sound source in the open sea. Those waves reportedly can be used to detect submarines and identify their model.

Those issues in the US land and sea-based nuclear arsenals may feed into a more significant problem marked by great power competition and possible nuclear proliferation.

In an article this month, The Economist notes
that the world may be facing a period of nuclear uncertainty – specifically, that the US and its allies may face uncertainty driven by the Ukraine War and China's expanding nuclear arsenal.

The Economist also noted stark differences between the Trump and Biden administrations' nuclear policies, the former advocating for a more robust nuclear posture with the
submarine-launched cruise missile nuclear (SLCM-N) program and the latter attempting to cancel that program as unneeded by a more restrained US nuclear posture.

The publication notes that such inconsistency may raise questions about the reliability of the US nuclear umbrella and extended deterrence guarantees.

The Economist says such uncertainty can lead to

• the resumption of nuclear weapons tests by the US, China, and Russia;
• the introduction of new nuclear delivery systems; and
• moves by US allies such as Japan, South Korea, and European states toward acquiring their own nuclear weapons.