(MENAFN) As Europe gears up for the upcoming European Parliament elections, a new book by French investigative journalist Charles Sapin sheds light on the potential political implications of Ukraine's worsening situation. Sapin's analysis, detailed in his book titled 'Les Moissons de la Colere' (The Harvests of Wrath), suggests that setbacks for Ukraine could play into the hands of the establishment parties within the European Union (EU).
Despite widespread support from the European Union for the Ukrainian government in its conflict with Russia, Sapin argues that negative developments on the battlefield could inadvertently benefit parties like the European People's Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). He refers to this phenomenon as a potential "rallying behind the flag effect," which could bolster support for incumbent political forces.
Sapin's research focuses extensively on what he terms as "nationalist" parties, particularly those forming the Identity and Democracy (ID) bloc in the European Parliament. These parties, including Hungary's Fidesz, Portugal's Chega, Spain's Vox, France's National Rally, Brothers of Italy, and the Sweden Democrats, have seen a surge in popularity across Europe.
However, despite their growing numbers, Sapin highlights a significant weakness within the nationalist bloc – their disparate views on the Ukraine conflict. This lack of cohesion, he argues, leaves these parties "isolated" within the political landscape of Brussels, limiting their effectiveness in shaping European Union policies.
While nationalist victories in the upcoming elections could potentially shift the political spectrum towards the right, Sapin suggests that this may ultimately benefit the EPP, the current majority group in the European Parliament. The rise of nationalist parties, Sapin contends, may serve to highlight the importance of mainstream parties and their commitment to stability and unity within the European Union.
As Sapin's insights bring attention to the intricate dynamics at play in European politics, his research prompts a deeper examination of the potential ramifications of Ukraine's geopolitical struggles on the European political landscape. In the face of uncertainty, the upcoming elections may serve as a litmus test for the resilience and adaptability of both establishment and nationalist political forces within the European Union.
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