US Dollar Latest EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecasts Ahead Of US Data

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3/28/2024 5:22:50 AM

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Host: Duration: min 09:18:53 widgets/economicCalendar._abbr () Actual Forecast PreviousRevised EUR/USD Bearish
1h Last updated:Mar 28, 2024
Long Short
Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News US Dollar Latest – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecasts Ahead of US Data 2024-03-28 08:53:41 Euro Latest – German GDP Seen at Just 0.1% in 2024, EUR/USD Under Pressure 2024-03-27 17:00:00 Oil - US Crude Mixed
1h Last updated:Mar 28, 2024

Long Short
Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Crude Oil Prices Slip Again As US Inventories Increase, OPEC Meet Eyed 2024-03-27 13:00:00 BoJ Exits Negative Rates but JPY Falters, USD Bid on Rate Cut Pushback 2024-03-19 15:00:27 Wall Street Mixed
1h Last updated:Mar 28, 2024

Long Short
Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Dow and Nasdaq 100 Find Support While Nikkei 225 Tiptoes Lower 2024-03-26 12:00:36 Dow and Nikkei 225 Hit Fresh Records, with Nasdaq 100 Following Close Behind 2024-03-21 11:00:00 Gold Mixed
1h Last updated:Mar 28, 2024

Long Short
Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News Gold, Silver Price Update: XAU/USD Rises on a Softer Dollar, Silver Withers 2024-03-26 15:09:20 Gold Price Steadies After Sharp Sell-Off, New All Time High Remains Possible 2024-03-25 15:00:42 GBP/USD Bearish
1h Last updated:Mar 28, 2024

Long Short
Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News US Dollar Latest – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecasts Ahead of US Data 2024-03-28 08:53:41 US Dollar in Holding Pattern; Key Tech Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD 2024-03-26 22:30:00 USD/JPY Bullish
1h Last updated:Mar 28, 2024

Long Short
Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.
Data provided by News US Dollar Latest – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecasts Ahead of US Data 2024-03-28 08:53:41 FX Intervention Threat Steps up a Notch after USD/JPY Hits a Crucial Level 2024-03-27 09:14:02 MoreView More

Business Confidence (Mar)Actual: 88.6Expected: 87.6Previous: 87.5
Monetary Policy Inflation Recession More
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US Dollar Latest – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart
USD/JPY Daily Price Chart
US Dollar Latest – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

US data releases will direct the dollar's short-term future.
EUR/USD looking for a sub-1.0800 break

For all major central bank meeting dates, see the DailyFX Central Bank Calendar
Recommended by Nick Cawley Trading Forex News: The Strategy Get My Guide
A potentially tricky end to the week with a slew of Bank Holidays on Friday and Monday leaving some markets open and some closed. Tomorrow also sees the release of this week's data point of note, US PCE . The core reading y/y is seen holding steady at 2.8%, while the closely watched PCE Price Index y/y is seen nudging 0.1% higher to 2.5%. Any deviation from these figures will likely cause a US dollar reaction, especially in holiday-thinned markets. Today sees the release of the final look at US Q4 GDP (12:30 UK) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March (14:00 UK).

For all economic data releases and events see the DailyFX Economic Calendar
The US dollar is picking up a bid going into these data releases and the long weekend, helped by a softer Euro . The US dollar index is closing in on the mid-February swing high and a clear break above would leave the dollar back at highs last seen in November 2023.
US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart
Euro Latest – German GDP Seen at Just 0.1% in 2024, EUR/USD Under Pressure
The Euro remains under pressure and is testing big figure support at 1.0800 against the US dollar. Recent market focus on the weakness of the German economy has triggered speculation that the European Central Bank may go for back-to-back rate cuts, starting at the June meeting, ahead of the August break. The latest market pricing shows an implied rate of 3.50% for the July meeting.

A break below 1.0787 would leave EUR/USD vulnerable to a further sell-off with 1.0698 the next level of support. The pair have broken below all three simple moving averages and this leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to further losses.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
IG retail trader data shows 55.17% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.23 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 0.73% higher than yesterday and 43.72% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.39% lower than yesterday and 21.98% lower than last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall.
EUR/USDBearish Data provided by

of clients are net long. of clients are net short.

Change in	Longs	Shorts	OI
Daily	4%	-13%	-4%
Weekly	49%	-28%	3%

What does it mean for price action? Get My Guide

GBP/USD is just above1.2600 and is set to test the recently supportive 200-day simple moving average, currently at 1.2588. A break below would turn the chart further negative, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2471 as the first line of support.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

USD/JPY remains at levels that may provoke official intervention by the Japanese authorities. The BoJ recently moved interest rates out of negative territory as it began to unwind decades of ultra-loose monetary policy , but the Yen remains weak. Official talk yesterday produced a small sell-off in USD/JPY back to 151 but this is now being reversed. If Japanese officials ramp up the rhetoric, a long weekend with low liquidity could see USD/JPY move sharply.

FX Intervention Threat Steps up a Notch after USD/JPY Hits a Crucial Level

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

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What are your views on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1 .

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