China Property Crisis Another Blow To Global Travel

One major – if indirect – reason China's real estate industry is so shaky is that local governments are heavily dependent on tax revenue from land sales, as well as property taxes and real estate development fees. At the same time, the general population has invested about 70% of assets in real estate .

Those facts enticed developers and local governments alike to borrow excessively to fund new development. When the central government started to implement more stringent regulations to curb speculation and control prices, the market predictably cooled – and has kept cooling. In July 2023, new home sales from China's top 100 developers were down 33% from the previyear. Prices are slumping, too.

This has had a cascade of effects on the Chinese economy. Most immediately, amid falling demand for construction materials and labor, hiring has cooled and consumers are tightening their belts . Local governments are also struggling to stay afloat with less revenue, with some provinces being forced to slash government salaries and benefits .

The situation is especially challenging for homeowners, who are burdened with shrinking wealth as housing prices fall. This has had a ripple effect on spending, as cauticonsumers increasingly prioritize their savings – worsening the economic challenge for businesses across the country.

Unsurprisingly – at least to anyone who's paid attention to the world economy – what happens in China doesn't stay in China. And the global tourism industry has been hit particularly hard as newly budget-consciChinese homeowners pare back their spending.

As of April 2023, Chinese tourism to Japan was down some 85% since 2019 , even though overall visits to Japan had rebounded to 70% of pre-pandemic levels. Chinese tourism to popular European destinations such as France, Switzerland, Greece and Spain has also fallen sharply .

All in all, China's outbound travel spending is forecast to be down nearly 70% this year from its pre-pandemic peak.

To be fair, tourism within China is bouncing back – to a degree – as frugal travelers increasingly opt to vacation closer to home . The China Tourism Academy predicts that domestic tourism will hit 90% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

But that alone won't offset the impact of lower consumer confidence. Part of the reason is that the amount of money travelers are willing to spend is down.

And faced with demand challenges as well as the effects of Covid-19 and geopolitical strife, Chinese travel agencies have been shuttering en masse in recent years. From January to April 2022, some 8,500 tourism agents and firms declared bankruptcy . Even assuming some reopen, that churn and disruption bode ill for the sector.

Global tourism has faced a challenging few years, with the pandemic and increased fuel costs putting off would-be travelers. With Chinese consumers feeling down in the dumps over the economy and opting for modest vacations, a recovery will be that much harder.

Zhiyong Yang is a professor of marketing at Miami University .

Disclosure: Zhiyong Yang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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