How China Sees Russia's Wagner Fiasco

One state reason stands out as particularly important: the Russian defense ministry's order to incorporate all private mercenaries under its command by July 1.
talking
to China's
Observer, military expert Song Zhongping noted that Prigozhin feared losing power and, as the deadline neared, decided to wage a mutiny.

While all commentaries have criticized Moscow's overreliance on private mercenaries as“getting caught in one's own cocoon” (zuojian zifu 作茧自缚), Song stated that Wagner did play an unparalleled role in the war. Being a private military company independent of the state, Wagner took losses without impacting the legitimacy of the Russian state or its purse.

Even though Putin's political acumen and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's diplomatic skill in handling the crisis have been hailed, many in China believe that the dust has not yet fully settled.

Talking to
Sina News, Geng Xin
noted
that the Wagner fiasco was not a“false alarm” as many“contradictions” continue to lurk – first and foremost being the dilemma in Russia on whether it sees itself as part of the East or the West. Such a phenomenon is coupled with a poor record of economic development, with the Russian political elite's miscalculations that a return to the former“glory” of the Soviet Union is possible.

A second contradiction is the underestimation of Ukraine's potential to fight back and the disastrous decision to go to war.

Third, an ineffective military system allows too much space for private mercenaries, posing a major challenge.

Fourth is the phenomenon termed“chaos giving birth to heroes” (luan shi chu xiaoxiong
乱世出枭雄), in which all political, social and economic contradictions elevate inequality to the extent of producing men prone to revolt, such as Prigozhin.

It's noted that Prigozhin not only refused to surrender but openly
defied
Vladimir Putin by describing Wagner soldiers as“true patriots.” Talking to
The Observer, Tan Dekai
said
that many in Russia see Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as a product of the oligarchic system and do not think he is fit for the job.

Being a war hero, Prigozhin enjoys popularity, but Russians do not favor him as a leader. The continued presence of several private military forces such as those held by Gazprom is seen as a threat for China since a divided Russia ruled by warlords would invite external forces, particularly the United States, to intervene.

Another commentary in Sina News described the incident as the“biggest gray rhino” since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. That's a term Xi Jinping used in his 20th party congress report to refer to unexpected security threats.

Russia has
claimed
that this incident will not impact the“special military operation” in Ukraine, but many in China are not so sure.

The Paper, a Shanghai-based publication, noted that Prigozhin has destabilized the two main arteries of Russia's military offensive, Rostov Oblast in South and Voronezh Oblast in North.

A war between Wagner and the Russian military would have been disastrous but, even with the crisis averted, dealing with the demobilized soldiers and ensuring their loyalty in Prigozhin's absence would be an uphill task.

Beijing is also
worried
about the misuse of Moscow's nuclear arsenal. As Ukraine's counteroffensive intensifies, many in China believe Putin did the right thing to negotiate with Prigozhin. But will he come out stronger? They say he will, but this is dampened by concerns of entrenched problems in post-Soviet Russian society.

Analysts in Moscow share similar beliefs. Talking to Russia Today, Dmitry Trenin described the deal as nothing short of a miracle, specifically as concerns were high over a lack of opposition against Prigozhin's march into Rostov-on-Don and on to Moscow.

Vladimir Bruter noted that the incident has heavily tarnished Moscow's international image and keeping up prolonged warfare with Ukraine would be“too optimistic” to expect. He believes that the need of the hour is to formulate a consistent plan for the military operation.

But will Putin end the war? As of now, no. He would like to deal with the internal challenges to his authority that the incident has exposed and making a move to negotiate first would be equal to conceding defeat.

While Beijing has reaffirmed its“comprehensive strategic partnership” with Russia in its official statement, opinions reflect that a prolonged war with growing aggression from private military groups would be bad news.

The main reasons for supporting Russia remain the challenge Moscow presents to the expanding influence of Western liberal ideas that China views as a threat and Beijing's own sovereignty concerns over Taiwan.

Nevertheless, Beijing will never allow any partnership, no matter how“comprehensive,” to derail economic development that robs Beijing's international significance and tarnishes the image of the Communist Party at home.

Neither can it afford to send military troops in support of Moscow and face Western sanctions. The idea remains to engage so far as the relationship remains profitable but when tides turn unfavorable, Beijing finds itself caught in the quagmire.

Hence China is highly likely to reassess its“no limits” partnership with Moscow, but without an official announcement – just as support for Russia was never explicitly committed to.

Beijing is likely to push ahead its peace plan for ending the war once again before Washington does. But how well China succeeds depends on to what extent Putin agrees to listen to Beijing, for he certainly has bigger ambitions and far less at stake.

The incident does, however, present a flickering hope for the United States and China to restart dialogue. Analysts in China
agree
that ensuring stability in nuclear-armed Russia and bringing the war to an end are concerns Beijing shares with Washington.

Instability in Russia is a mounting concern that China finds hard to address on its own. If sincere attempts to end the war do spring from Beijing, the United States must be ready to work with China.

However, for that to happen, Beijing must tone down its prerequisites for dialogue with Washington that have blocked all high-level attempts at thawing the ice. The Wagner incident could facilitate what diplomatic negotiations so far have failed to achieve.

Cherry Hitkari
() is a non-resident Vasey fellow and young leader at Pacific Forum, which originally published this article. Asia Times is republishing with permission.