australia's current capabilities under the“balanced force” model are insufficient to manage larger threats. for this reason, it is eager to pursue missile development and acquire advanced military equipment.
the review is an important step in evaluating capabilities and charting a course to lead australia towards a more prominent position in the regional security architecture.
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china's posture may be compounded by the threat of japan's military buildup in east asia, and its consequences for the taiwan strait in the coming years. in such a scenario, the enhancement of australia's military power can also be perceived as a hostile threat, inviting adverse reactions.
japan has big money plans to remilitarize. image: twitter
in his book asia's cauldron, robert kaplan observes that china perceives the south china sea as its sphere of influence. given the territorial disputes in the region, china remains anxious about its own security. it has increased military buildup to“project power” in its immediate security ecosystem.
the biggest concern for indo-pacific countries may be the
military use of the island features
reclaimed by china in the south china sea. these facilities give beijing an undue military advantage.
this is not only
concerning for australia
due to the volatile bilateral relationship, but also concerning for the philippines and indonesia, which are claimants in the dispute. the alleged
incursions into disputed areas
by chinese fishing fleets, accompanied by military vessels, have aggravated tensions.
china's exploration of foreign
basing facilities
indicates military power projection outside its domestic territories, including in southeast asia. the possibility of a
chinese naval base
in the solomon islands rattled australia and the west in 2022.
china's military presence in the pacific can be problematic for two reasons: it will allow easy targeting of australian territory and deny sea space to australia. this effectively limits military support from the united states and japan in dire situations.
even as canberra remains headstrong about its security interests and alignment with the united states, pockets of the australian parliament
have doubts
about fighting an american war in the south china sea. the recently released review talks of a“whole-of-nation” approach, in a bid to improve
australian public confidence .
reservations about fighting an american war will be likely balanced by the benefits from the us alliance. this will mean continued support for the united states in areas like the south china sea, although this may vary as domestic considerations are taken into account.
if an active military conflict in the south china sea is to be averted, all security stakeholders -including china - must have a common denominator for discussions. this includes clear understanding of escalatory triggers induced by gray-zone tactics.
this may be possible when beijing opens up to concerted dialogue aimed at building trust, with southeast asian partners at the primary level and the united states and regional powers at a secondary level.
a chinese nuclear-powered type 094a jin-class ballistic missile submarine takes part in a military display in the south china sea. photo: handout
despite some resilience in their bilateral relationship in 2023 as well as recent deliberations on trade, australia and china will remain pitched against one another due to enduring us-china competition in the region. insecurities around the gap in military capabilities fuel australia's drive to modernize its defense industry .
a notable achievement of the new labor government is the
normalization in relations
with china, despite a commitment to enhancing defense and strengthening cooperation with the united states and japan.
as australia does not want to
antagonize china , greater diplomacy with beijing can pacify bellicose reactions to australia's improved military capabilities. australia's
improved capabilities
are essential to maintaining regional power status and defense against national security threats.
akash sahu is an analyst in indo-pacific geopolitics and southeast asian studies. he leads an independent policy and strategy consulting practice from new delhi.
this article was originally published by east asia forum and is republished under a creative commons license.
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