Envisioning US Forces Korea's Role In A Taiwan War

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The United States' 2026 National Security Strategy places greater emphasis on homeland defense than the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, subordinate unified commands such as USFK may be expected to shoulder increased deterrence responsibilities and contingency planning.

Geographically, South Korea occupies a strategically important position in a potential conflict with China. Its access to the Yellow Sea and East China Sea enables support for US Forces Japan, which would likely play a more direct role in a Taiwan emergency than USFK.

USFK could also help deter North Korean provocations should Pyongyang attempt to overstretch US forces during a Taiwan crisis. Through early-warning data sharing with Tokyo, Seoul can also help monitor China's growing ballistic missile capabilities that could approach Korean airspace.

Japan, which has ended its strategic ambiguity on Taiwan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, could play a major role in evacuating essential personnel, including American and Taiwanese officials. USFK could assist evacuation efforts and use South Korea as a processing hub for key personnel.

Japan's potential direct intervention in a Taiwan emergency, along with US Forces Japan engaging the Chinese military, would make Japan a target for Beijing's ballistic missiles. South Korea, by contrast, may avoid direct combat, positioning it as a safer staging zone for evacuees.

South Korea is a major producer of artillery and missiles, and USFK could facilitate the movement of wartime supplies to key Indo-Pacific locations, including Japan and Guam. As Seoul assists Washington in revitalizing shipbuilding, USFK could also support maintenance and naval production during wartime.

USFK could also contribute to intelligence gathering on Chinese naval movements. South Korea's National Intelligence Service, working with USFK, could track elements of China's Northern Fleet and key PLA staging areas in a conflict scenario.

China's potential reaction

Beijing is unlikely to remain passive in response to expanded USFK involvement or deployments and could seek to pressure Seoul through diplomatic coercion, military threats or hybrid warfare.

Chinese state media has characterized South Korea as the weakest link among US allies in East Asia when it comes to supporting Taiwan.

USFK could potentially use South Korea's southern regions and islands to disrupt PLA reinforcements in a Taiwan contingency, including at locations such as Jeju. This possibility raises the risk that South Korea could become a Chinese target for retaliation.