Nifty Outlook: SEBI Analysts Flag 24,500 As Make-Or-Break Level Amid Volatility

The Nifty 50 witnessed a volatile session on September 2, the first weekly expiry after the shift from Thursday to Tuesday. The index opened higher, but later faced profit booking from the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), erasing most of the intraday gains. It closed below 24,600, forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily chart - indicating selling pressure near resistance levels. 

SEBI-registered analysts shared the trade setup for Wednesday on Stocktwits.

Technical Outlook 

Analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that on the daily chart, Nifty managed to cross its 20-day and 100-day EMAs, but failed to hold above them due to profit booking. Immediate resistance lies at 24,700–24,800. A decisive breakout above 24,750 could trigger short covering towards 25,000 and 25,150. 

On the downside, 24,500 is the first support zone, followed by 24,400-24,337. A sustained break below 24,400 could invite further selling pressure, dragging the index towards 24,300. If broken, the downside may extend towards 24,200. 

Derivatives data show that the 24,700–24,800 zone is expected to act as a critical resistance band, while 24,500 remains a make-or-break support. Since this was the first revised Tuesday expiry, volatility could remain elevated in the coming sessions, Chandel added.

He shared two trading scenarios for Wednesday. In the bullish scenario, if the Nifty index crosses 24,700, it may attempt to test 24,800. A close above 24,750–24,800 can trigger short covering towards 25,000 – 25,150. In the bearish scenario, if the index falls below 24,500, weakness may push the index down to 24,400. A breakdown below 24,400 could accelerate the decline towards 24,300–24,200. 

Chandel advised traders to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy as long as 24,500 holds, maintain a tight stop-loss and stay flexible given the elevated volatility. He concluded that the short-term uptrend remains intact, but the selling pressure near the resistance level cannot be ignored. Watch 24,500 closely as a make-or-break level; holding above it may keep momentum positive, but a breakdown could shift control back to bears.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services highlighted that the fall on Tuesday was just a technical expiry havoc. Positionally, their stance is neutral as the index remains in a indecisive zone. For intraday trading, he identified immediate support at 24,550, which, if breached, could lead to 24,500, followed by 24,460-24,400, and then 24,350, respectively. Sharma expects support to be tested on the 200-day EMA near 24,250. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 24,600, followed by 24,630-24,60. Once Nifty crosses this hurdle, he expects the index to rise to 24,680-24,720 and 24,750.

Ashish Kyal noted that the Nifty index saw a rejection on the downside at 24,728, which is also a high volume point of control, where prices are currently holding. On the downside, 24,420 is a crucial support level; if prices fall below this, a topping Head and Shoulders (H & S) pattern would activate. For a bullish trend to begin, Kyal noted that the index needs to close above 24,728 (spot).

A & Y Market Research identified Nifty intraday support at 24,461 - 24,490, with resistance at 24,738 - 24800. For Bank Nifty, they see resistance between 54,177 - 54,248, and support at 53,495 - 53,660.

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