Ethanol Hopes Drove Cian Agro's 1,900% Rally But SEBI RIA Sees Bubble Signs

Cian Agro Industries' meteoric rise has drawn close attention from investors as the stock delivered extraordinary gains over the past year, supported by government policy moves in ethanol blending and new business announcements.

SEBI-registered investment adviser Wealth Wishers said the company's share price surged from ₹40 in August 2024 to ₹400 a year later, before touching around ₹800 by the end of August 2025. 

The rally was primarily fueled by policy support for ethanol blending and Cian Agro's announcement of producing ethanol from CO2 capture technology.

Tracking Fundamentals 

According to Wealth Wishers, while financials have shown strong growth, valuations now appear unsustainable. 

Revenue surged from ₹17 crore in the first quarter (Q1)of FY24 to ₹511 crore in Q1 FY25, while operating profit increased from ₹5 crore to ₹114 crore. 

The analyst said that a significant portion of the growth was due to consolidation, with standalone revenue for Cian Agrotech at approximately ₹100 crore. Contributions from subsidiaries remain unclear.

Valuation metrics indicate a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 2,375 times and a price-to-book value (P/BV) multiple of 23.1, which is well above industry averages. The promoter's holding has decreased from 77.37% to 67.67% in recent years, with 44.3% of that stake pledged. 

Foreign and domestic institutional participation is negligible, suggesting that retail investors have primarily driven the rally.

Cian Agro: Risk Factors 

Wealth Wishers also highlighted risks, including stretched valuations, high promoter pledging, dependence on subsidiaries with limited transparency, and execution uncertainty surrounding the CO2-based ethanol project, which is still in the announcement stage.

Compared with peers like Balrampur Chini and Triveni Engineering, which have not seen similar re-ratings, the analyst said Cian Agro's rise looks sentiment-driven rather than industry-wide.

What Should Investors Do?

Wealth Wishers recommended avoiding the stock at current levels, cautioning that the extraordinary price appreciation is unlikely to sustain without strong execution and clarity on subsidiary performance.

The stock has risen 60% so far in 2025.

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