(MENAFN- Kashmir Observer) Lately, people have been saying the weather forecasts haven't been quite right. Why do you think that's happening?

That's a fair question, and I get why people feel that way. But here's the thing: forecasting the weather in summer, especially in July and August, is much tougher than in winter. These are the hottest months in both Kashmir and Ladakh, with very high surface temperatures.

Another big challenge is the terrain. We're dealing with a really complex geography here: Pir Panjal, the Greater Himalayas, valleys, hills like Kupwara. All this uneven land messes with weather patterns.

And then, there's the moisture. Summer brings in heavy humidity from the Arabian Sea. The atmosphere gets loaded with moisture, and clouds can build up fast. That can lead to sudden, intense showers in one place and dry skies just a few kilometers away. So predicting exactly when and where it will rain is not easy.

So you're saying it's actually easier to forecast in winter than in summer?

Yes, exactly. In winter, things are way more stable. Temperatures often stay below freezing in Kashmir and Ladakh, so the atmosphere isn't shifting every hour. That means the weather models we use, especially the ones for North India, behave more reliably. So yes, we tend to get better accuracy in winter.

So as a general rule, can people expect better forecasts in winter?

Yes, that's usually the case. In winter, we can often get accuracy levels of 80 to 90 percent, especially for things like snowfall or rain.

But in summer, with all the constant changes in the atmosphere, accuracy dips a bit, down to around 70 to 75 percent.

What kind of forecasting systems or models does IMD actually use?

We use a mix of national and international models, and we've also developed some in India, like the Bharat Weather Forecast System. But here's the important part: the tools are just one side of it. Interpretation is equally critical.

It's not like picking up the phone and saying,“It'll rain tomorrow.” We have to go through satellite images, radar data, synoptic charts. It's like detective work. You need good models and skilled people to read them right.

Okay, let's talk about the recent forecast. It said it would rain from July 21st to 24th, but we didn't see much. Did the monsoon fail us?

Ah, the monsoon debate! Yes, the monsoon definitely plays a role, but here's the thing: there's this common myth that monsoon clouds don't cross the Pir Panjal or reach Ladakh. Even some so-called experts believe that. It's not true. When the currents are strong, they do reach us.

Take July 21, for example. We said it would rain, and it did rain, just not everywhere.

People often expect the forecast to mean rain exactly where they live, but when we say“rain in Jammu and Kashmir,” we're talking about the whole region. It rained heavily in places like Jammu, around Mata Vaishno Devi, and several hilly areas. In fact, there were even injuries due to heavy rain in some spots.

Also, when we say rain from the 21st to the 24th, we don't mean it's going to pour non-stop for four days straight. That would cause flooding.

What we mean is: expect rain here and there across the region during that period. For example, parts of north Kashmir did get showers, and more was expected later that evening too.

Got it. So what's the forecast looking like after July 25th?

From July 24th afternoon to around the 27th, we expect things to calm down a bit. No major rain spells, so it'll be relatively stable.

That said, if temperatures rise too much, we might get those pop-up thunderstorms or gusty winds. Those are tricky, as they're sudden and hard to pin down.

But the type of widespread rainfall we saw earlier probably won't continue.

Final question. How much does a meteorologist's experience matter when interpreting forecasts?

It matters a lot. You can have all the data in the world, but if the person reading it makes a mistake, even something as simple as reading a“2” instead of a“1”, that changes everything.

Forecasting isn't just about machines or numbers. It's about how you analyze and interpret.

The good news is, forecasting in India has come a long way. Our systems are getting stronger, models better, and our understanding deeper.

But the atmosphere is unpredictable by nature. No forecast can ever be 100% perfect, especially in a place like Kashmir where the weather has a mind of its own.

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