Donald Trump's Actions Open The Gates To Nuclear Proliferation

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Once protected by the US nuclear umbrella, America's closest allies are now threatened by it. Europe's loss of confidence in the US is so severe that finding alternatives has now become part of serious discussions in capitals across the continent. France and the United Kingdom are poised to fill the void by sharing their nuclear deterrence with the likes of Germany and Poland .

The scene in Asia

The risk of proliferation is greatest in East Asia. On the campaign trail in 2016, Trump mused that Japan and South Korea might need to develop nuclear weapons.“It's only a matter of time,” he said.

That time, unfortunately, is now.

While Trump has been busy burning bridges in Europe and North America, his allies in East Asia - South Korea and Japan - have been watching with dismay the implosion of the US-led international order. They have no alternative to relying nonetheless on the American nuclear umbrella, except to build their own deterrent capabilities.

Polls now show that more than two-thirds of South Koreans support their country's acquisition of nuclear weapons independent of the US. Key figures across the political spectrum as well as a growing chorus of academics and journalists have also openly floated the idea of nuclearization.

To address South Korea's growing anxiety and check its nascent nuclear ambitions, the previous Joe Biden administration launched a bilateral initiative called Nuclear Consultative Group in 2023 .

It established a regular mechanism between the two countries to discuss the state of the nuclear umbrella and perform joint defense exercises. This measure went a long way to quiet the voices calling for South Korean nuclearization - until Trump returned to the White House.

South Korea

Trump's so-called America First foreign policy has given every reason for South Korea to once again question the reliability of US security guarantees . If the Trump administration is willing to throw its oldest and closest allies in the North Atlantic under the bus, there is little reason for South Koreans to place their continued faith in the US.

As important as South Korea has been to an American grand strategy, it has always been a second-tier ally and its bilateral alliance with the US was never as important as NATO or as special as the Canada-US relationship. South Korea is much more vulnerable to abandonment, and it now appears to be expendable in the second Trump administration.

Going nuclear is not a question of means for South Korea. It has one of the most advanced civilian nuclear industries in the world, with 24 reactors in operation and more than enough scientific know-how to churn out weapons in a short time, estimated at six to 12 months .

The question has always been one of political will, the absence of which has rested on American security assurances. With the Trump administration actively demolishing security guarantees to its closest allies, South Korea may conclude that the only viable path to its continued existence in the post-American world is acquiring nuclear weapons.

Japan, Taiwan

South Korea's nuclearization likely would lead to a domino effect, triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation across the region. If South Korea makes a dash for the bomb, Japan will have no choice but to follow suit.

Japan has a full nuclear fuel cycle , including a uranium enrichment plant, spent-fuel reprocessing facilities, nine tons of plutonium and 1.2 tons of enriched uranium that can be easily fashioned into thousands of nuclear bombs in as little as six months.