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JPMorgan rings world-wide recession alarm
(MENAFN) JPMorgan has raised the likelihood of a global recession to 60%, up from 40%, following the announcement of sweeping new tariffs by US President Donald Trump. This move has shaken financial markets and raised fears of a global trade war.
JPMorgan's chief economist, Bruce Kasman, warned in a note to clients that the new tariffs represent the largest tax increase on US households and businesses since 1968. He cautioned that these measures could lead to significant negative effects, including retaliation from other nations, decreased business sentiment in the US, and disruptions to supply chains.
Despite not immediately revising forecasts, Kasman noted that the full implementation of these tariffs could cause a severe macroeconomic shock, potentially pushing both the US and global economies into recession this year.
Other financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, have also adjusted their forecasts, increasing the chance of a US recession in 2025 from 20% to 35%, citing the new US policies. Additionally, Deutsche Bank has warned of a potential dollar crisis linked to the tariffs.
JPMorgan's chief economist, Bruce Kasman, warned in a note to clients that the new tariffs represent the largest tax increase on US households and businesses since 1968. He cautioned that these measures could lead to significant negative effects, including retaliation from other nations, decreased business sentiment in the US, and disruptions to supply chains.
Despite not immediately revising forecasts, Kasman noted that the full implementation of these tariffs could cause a severe macroeconomic shock, potentially pushing both the US and global economies into recession this year.
Other financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, have also adjusted their forecasts, increasing the chance of a US recession in 2025 from 20% to 35%, citing the new US policies. Additionally, Deutsche Bank has warned of a potential dollar crisis linked to the tariffs.
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