Philippines A Strategic Winner When Trump Takes The Helm

Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief of staff General Romeo Brawner Jr characterized the new center as“a vital nexus for our joint operations, a gateway for information-sharing and strategic coordination” that will enhance the two allies'“ability to collaborate during a crisis, fostering an environment where our strengths combine to safeguard peace and security in our region.”

Austin also visited a military camp in Palawan, a frontline province facing the South China Sea, including the highly contested Spratly group of islands where Philippine troops control more than half a dozen features whose ownership is disputed by China.

During the visit, Austin observed the Philippine Navy's deployment of T-12 unmanned surface vessels acquired through Washington's foreign military financing (FMF) program – a cornerstone of bilateral military cooperation.

Starting with the first Trump and continuing under the outgoing Biden administrations, the Pentagon has made clear that it's obliged to come to the Philippines' defense should any third party, namely China, seek to forcibly dismantle the Philippines' base atop the Second Thomas Shoal.

The 1951 Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) covers any attack on Philippine public vessels, aircraft and personnel operating in the South China Sea and the broader Pacific Ocean area.

China's foreign ministry has warned the Philippines that any defense pact with external powers“should [not] target any third party or harm the interests of any third party...Nor should it undermine regional peace or exacerbate regional tensions.”

In a thinly veiled criticism of growing Philippine-US defense cooperation, China said that the“only right choice for safeguarding national security and regional peace and stability is to uphold good neighborliness and friendship and maintain strategic independence.”

The Asian power, however, can assume Manila will up its security ties with the US under a Trump 2.0 administration. Trump's appointment of known China hawks such as Marco Rubio (as secretary of state) and Mike Waltz (as national security adviser) likely means the Philippines will be integral in his government's pressure tactics on China.

During his congratulatory phone call, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr held a reportedly“very friendly and productive” conversation with the newly elected US leader.

The Filipino leader even went so far as to claim that the millions-strong Filipino-American community“overwhelmingly voted” for Trump and that“I'm sure [Trump] will remember that when we see each other.''

Pre-election polls , however, have shown that, similar to other Asian-American groups, a healthy majority of Americans of Filipino descent actually favored outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris .

“I was able to talk to him this morning and the Philippines was in his thoughts,” Marcos told reporters while visiting the northwestern province of Catanduanes, which has been repeatedly battered by super typhoons in recent weeks, most recently Man-yi.

“I expressed to him our continuing desire to strengthen that relationship between our two countries, which is a relationship that is as deep as can possibly be-because it has been for a very long time,” the Filipino president added.

On his end of the call, Trump reminded of his historical bonds with the Marcos family, dating back to their heyday in Manhattan, by asking after the leader's mother, former First Lady Imelda Marcos, who is now 95 years old. At one point, the Marcoses owned a Trump building.

“He is friends with my mother. He knew my mother very well. He asked about her. 'How is Imelda?” I told him that she also sends her greetings,” Marcos said.

The two leaders didn't apparently discuss any substantial bilateral issues, including concerns over how a more draconian immigration policy under a second Trump presidency could severely affect large numbers of Filipino-Americans illegally residing in the US.

The US is expected to expand defense aid to the Philippines under Trump, despite the leader's call on allies to pay larger bills for US security guarantees.

A newly released report by the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that is expected to play an outsized role in Trump's second administration, has called for the affordable transfer of high-end defense items, including F-16 fighters, as well as the deployment of state-of-the-art Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
(THAAD) system, to defense allies.

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The Philippines may also seek to acquire the mid-range US Typhon missile system, which was deployed to Philippine soil for joint military exercises earlier this year but has not been redeployed to the US since. China has complained loudly about the Typhon , which has the capacity to hit Chinese cities from the Philippines.

At the same time, the new Trump administration will likely have limited patience for any dilly-dallying by key allies, especially frontline states such as the Philippines.

Marcos Jr, for instance, has yet to clarify his stance on a potential contingency in neighboring Taiwan and, accordingly, has demurred from either direct high-level military engagement with Taipei or full-scale involvement in any US-led plans to ward off a future Chinese kinetic action against the self-ruling island.

The Philippines is also still home to several big-ticket Chinese strategic investments. By and large, Marcos Jr's administration has sought to avoid full alignment with Washington by maintaining broadly functional ties with Beijing, a top trading partner.

But a second Trump administration is expected to put pressure on Asian allies to more overtly side with the US in the name of preserving a US-led regional order.

“Hedging doesn't make sense [since] geopolitically and from a defense perspective I would not hedge, because you are too important [as a frontline state]...[so] pick a side and make sure you are not a 'no man's land',” Elbridge Colby, a key architect of Trump's National Defense Strategy, told this writer earlier when asked about Southeast Asian states' unwillingness to pick a side in between the two superpowers.

“Being half-pregnant is a bad idea; half-measures are dangerous,” the former US deputy assistant secretary for defense said.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @RichHeydarian

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