Is Ukraine Headed Toward A Frozen Conflict?

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This will only end when both Russia and Ukraine view a settlement to be preferable to continued fighting. Unfortunately, the history of conflicts shows this can take many years to occur.

What would a Trump presidency mean?

Trump claims he would be able to end the war quickly with a negotiated settlement. There's no evidence to suggest this is feasible.

In Trump's first presidency, his foreign policy followed a populist style. Populist diplomacy tends to disregard the existing architecture of the international system and is more centraliz ed and personalized in approach.

As such, Trump's diplomacy relied heavily on personal relationships with his counterparts to drive outcomes. He was also focused on achieving rapid and easy solutions to complex problems – with limited success.

If elected, Trump would likely focus on his personal relationship with Putin, as well as his somewhat rocky relationship with Zelensky, to try to push a swift and decisive conclusion to the war.

The problem is, Trump's running mate, JD Vance, has already suggested a possible peace plan that would give Putin what he wants: the Ukrainian territory Russia already holds and a neutral Ukraine not part of NATO.

Putin would likely agree to such a deal. Claiming a large chunk of Ukrainian territory could be presented as a victory to the Russian people, who are tired of the war and unnerved by Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Putin desperately needs a political win.

Until a majority of Ukrainians support territorial concessions, however, it would be political suicide for Zelensky to trade“land for peace.”

Yet, Zelensky may be forced into negotiations under pressure from Trump and the threat of US military aid being cut off. Ukraine is already struggling to hold off Russian advances due to a critical shortage in military equipment . Though European military aid has remained steady since the war began, it cannot fill the gap if the US cuts off Ukraine completely.

Trump has already depicted Zelensky as“the greatest salesman of all time” and vowed to have Ukrainian military aid“settled” quickly, if elected. It's unclear if this means pressuring Zelensky to agree to a political settlement.

Ukraine may continue to fight without US support, but Russia could capture further territory from weakened and ill-equipped Ukrainian forces.

Another possibility, floated by a former Trump adviser in recent days, is the fighting stops without a declaration of a permanent ceasefire or political settlement.

This could lead to a frozen conflict similar to the end of the Korean War, with a demilitarized zone like the one that separates North and South Korea today. This would leave Ukraine in perpetual territorial limbo with no security assurance for the future.

What does all this mean for Zelensky's leadership?

Zelensky's popularity increased dramatically after the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion. Since then, however, his domestic support has gradually declined. Polling shows Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky decreased from a high of 90% directly after the invasion to 59% in September 2024.