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During the trading session on Wednesday, I have noticed that the New Zealand dollar has rallied quite nicely against the Singapore dollar, as we have seen a lot of“risk on” behavior in the early hours. But ultimately this is a market that is currently hanging around a couple of major technical levels that people will be paying close attention to.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this market of course is rather bullish, but we have a couple of levels that we need to pay close attention to. The 50 Day EMA of course is being tested, so that's an area that you need to pay close attention to, and I also recognize that this is a market that will continue to not only pay attention to that indicator, but also the 200 Day EMA, which is closer to the 0.8150 level. If we break above there, then the next major resistance barrier is at the 0.82 level.
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Underneath, the 0.80 level offers a significant amount of support that extends down to the 0.7980 level, perhaps even lower than that. The size of the candlestick of course is rather bullish, but it's not necessarily something that I think matters too much at this point. Given enough time, I think you've got a situation where traders continue to look at this through the risk appetite spectrum, which of course the New Zealand dollar has much more in the way of swap than the Singapore dollar does, so we do need to see more risk-taking to make this market go higher.
What the Federal Reserve cutting by 50 basis points during the day, a lot of people will start to question whether or not the risk appetite is warranted, and therefore it's also concerning because perhaps they are worried about the United States slowing down. If the US does in fact start to slow down, it's almost impossible for the rest of the world not to feel that, so this could be a very volatile market. As things stand right now, it looks like it's more or less a“buy on the dips” scenario.
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