(MENAFN- Daily Forex) Bullish view
Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6825. Add a stop-loss at 0.6700. Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Set a sell-stop at 0.6740 and a take-profit at 0.6680. Add a stop-loss at 0.6825.
The AUD/USD currency pair was flat on Wednesday morning as traders waited for the Fed decision and Thursday's Australia jobs numbers. It was trading at 0.6756, higher than this month's low of 0.6623.
The AUD/USD pair reacted mildly to Tuesday's US retail sales numbers. According to the Commerce Department, sales rose by 0.1% in August after growing by 1.1% in the previous month. This increase was better than the median estimate of a 0.2% decline.
Core retail sales, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, retreated to 0.1%, missing the expected 0.2%.
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Retail sales are some of the most popular leading indicators of the economy. However, their impact this month was limited because of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
In it, the market is mostly pricing in a 0.50% rate cut as the Fed attempts to engineer a soft landing for the economy. Recent data showed that inflation was falling while the unemployment rate remained above 4% in August.
The other important AUD/USD news will be Australia's jobs numbers, which will come out on Thursday. Economists expect the report to show that the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% in August.
The data will come a few days ahead of the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Unlike the Fed, which is expected to cut rates, the RBA is expected to maintain a hawkish tone because of the sticky inflation in Australia.
In past meetings, the RBA has hinted that it would hike interest rates, a sentiment that most economists don't believe. Instead, most analysts expect the central bank will start cutting rates either in the fourth quarter of the year or in Q1 of 2025/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair has continued rising in the past few days and is hovering near its highest point since September 3rd. It has crossed the 50-period Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) and the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) has moved above the neutral point of 50 and is pointing upward. It is forming the handle section of the cup and handle pattern whose upper side is at 0.6798.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the upper part of the cup. A move above that level will point to more gains, with the next level to watch being at 0.6825, its highest swing on August 29.
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