Japan's Faith In US Eroded By Impolitic Election Rhetoric

Speaking in English at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan (FCCJ) last week, Kono said that while the US-Japan security relationship is fundamental to Japan's defense, when the US becomes“volatile” and“we don't know what's going on” in Washington, Japan needs the“deeper assurance” of“layered defense.”

In Kono's view, that includes working with other allies in Asia-Pacific and Europe; a financially stronger domestic defense industry; and long-range missiles, drones and nuclear-powered submarines with non-nuclear torpedoes and missiles waiting quietly in the choke points between China and the Pacific Ocean.

Kono favors dialogue with China but says Japan needs to work with like-minded countries to put pressure on China and counter it in the Global South.

Ishiba believes that“the US-Japan alliance is very important, but that does not mean the same thing as trying to meet all the demands of the US... It is not in Japan's interest to expand its military capabilities just to please the US,” he told the FCCJ.

However, he also said“The United States not coming to the defense of Ukraine because it is not a NATO member is truly frightening. It's also extremely problematic that we do not have a collective security system in place here in East Asia. I will do my utmost to establish one.”

In August, when Ishiba met with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te in Taipei, he said that peace in the Taiwan Strait requires greater deterrence against Chinese aggression. Noting that“Today's Ukraine might be tomorrow's East Asia,”
he added that the most pressing need now is to prevent that from happening.

Minister of State for Economic Security
Sanae Takaichi, a disciple of former and now deceased prime minister Shinzo Abe, is the most hawkish of the LDP's candidates.

During her campaign for the LDP's leadership three years ago, she said:“We need to prepare for a new war. Our satellites might come under attack. Undersea cables might become severed. We should focus our resources on building the defenses of our nation.”

This time around, Takaichi advocates removing a buoy that China anchored near the disputed Senkaku Islands, promoting a“free and open Indo-Pacific” and discussing the revision of the prohibition on bringing nuclear weapons into Japan (one of the nation's Three Non-Nuclear Principles).

If elected prime minister, Takaichi also promises to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, a move that would surely enrage China and both Koreas. Japan's war dead, including those found guilty of war crimes by the International Military Tribune for the Far East after World War II, are enshrined there.

About 70 members of the Japanese Diet – including Takaichi, Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara, former chief cabinet secretary Katsunobu Kato, former minister of state for economic security
Takayuki Kobayashi and former mister of the environment Shinjiro Koizumi – visited the Yasukuni Shrine on August 15, the 79th anniversary of World War II's end in the Pacific.

Eight of the nine candidates in this month's election – Takaichi, Ishiba, Kato, Kobayashi, Koizumi, Kono, LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi – have emphasized the revision of Japan's“peace constitution” in their campaign presentations.

The ninth, Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa, doesn't really need to. She has served as chief secretary of the LDP's Headquarters for the Promotion of Revision of the Constitution and played an important role in Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's efforts to build security ties with other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

In August, Kamikawa visited New Delhi with Minister of Defense Kihara for the third Japan-India 2+2 Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting. In early September, she took part in the 2+2 meeting in Australia, where the two sides reaffirmed their commitment to Australia and Japan's Special Strategic Partnership.

Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles are: not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japanese territory.“Peace constitution” refers to Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan, entitled“Renunciation of War”, which reads:

“Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.

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“In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.”

Article 9 – which, like the rest of Japan's constitution, was drafted by American occupation officials after WWII – has been only nominally honored with the build-up of ground, maritime and air Self-Defense Forces.

But a growing share of the public and their elected representatives now think it is time to formally recognize the role those forces play in protecting the nation and its interests.

The results of an annual poll released in May by the Yomiuri Shimbun, one of Japan's top daily newspapers, showed 53% favor revision of the second paragraph of Article 9 – the highest number ever and ten percentage points greater than those saying it was not necessary.

75% of respondents saw no reason to revise the first paragraph, indicating that most Japanese are facing the reality of international relations, not turning pro-war.

Overall, 63% were in favor of revising the constitution versus 35% against. Some people would like to revise other articles of the constitution and some would like to have a constitution written by the Japanese themselves, not one imposed from outside.

Faced with rising threats from China and North Korea and impolitic statements from US politicians that undermine trust in the US-Japan Security Treaty, the Japanese are on the verge of becoming a normal country that is more self-reliant in protecting its national interests.

On September 12, the first day of active campaigning, Kobayashi said,“I will make Japan a leading country in the world and a truly autonomous country that does not go every which way following the trends of other countries.”

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