(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Elnur Enveroglu
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The outcome of the U.S. presidential election holds significant
potential to impact the Armenian Diaspora, a fact that many
pro-Armenian politicians and lobbyists are keenly aware of.
Speculations about Kamala Harris's potential favourability to
Armenians, fuelled by Kim Kardashian's 100K USD donation, have
sparked discussions about the influence of the Armenian community
on the upcoming U.S. president. This prompts the question: Could
Trump's policies pose a threat to the Armenian community?
Speaking to AZERNEWS , the US expert in the
South Caucasus, Dr Frank Musmar, gave further insight into the
political position and strategies of the candidates in the upcoming
presidential elections in the United States. He also commented on
what steps the Armenian diaspora will take in the future due to a
president-elect.
"The Armenian Diaspora, a formidable force in the United States,
is represented by numerous influential organizations. Notably, the
Armenian Assembly of America (AAA), established in 1972, and the
Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), the largest and most
influential Armenian American grassroots political organization,
stand as a testament to the significant influence of this
community.
The Armenian Diaspora is well-positioned in competitive election
states. The largest and most established Armenian population
flourishes across California (750,000 people); however, newer
communities are growing in Phoenix, Arizona, and Nevada, as many
moved to these states from California. Moreover, many Armenian
communities extend from New Hampshire to Virginia and sizable
communities across the mid-west to Michigan, Wisconsin, and
Pennsylvania. While votes in California and Massachusetts may not
sway the outcome much due to their usual blue-state status,
Armenian votes in swing states like Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin
can hold substantial importance during the pre-election period. In
this regard, the Armenian votes in these states are vital for both
Republicans and Democrats, making it essential to grasp the stance
of the Armenian community on these elections.
According to Dr. Musmar, the Armenian lobby, which could not get
what it wanted from the Biden administration, is currently hoping
for Kamala Harris.
"The main topic that is most important to the Armenian Diaspora
to cast their votes for either Party is condemning any U.S.
complicity in what Armenia claims as Azerbaijan's genocide of
Artsakh and its aggression against Armenia, arguing that the Biden
Administration failed to support Armenia and Artsakh adequately,
hold the Azerbaijani government accountable. The Diaspora met with
pro-Armenian politicians and lobbyists of the Democratic Party,
demanding Kamala Harris promise to agree on the 3 points mentioned
above for their support in the election," Dr Musmar said.
However, according to the pundit, for the United States, foreign
policy, democracy, human rights, energy, and security are believed
to be the three central pillars of the U.S. South Caucasian
policy.
"Due to the State's interest in transporting possibilities of
the Caspian basin's energy resources to Western markets, energy
will remain the main priority. Moreover, a continuation of certain
inertia, the non-active policy will be preserved under Trump, the
most expected to win the election, as he is famous for his
declarations and practical approaches regarding decreasing U.S.
interference in other countries, especially domestic affairs," he
added.
Regarding Trump's relationship with Azerbaijan, the political
expert said that after Trump's election as president for the second
time, the United States may intervene less in the South
Caucasus.
"Under a potential second Trump administration, we see reduced
U.S. interference in the South Caucasus. Among the three countries
in the region, Georgia could be the most affected by this policy,
as it has traditionally relied on active Western, mainly American,
support.
Azerbaijan-US relations are expected to flourish during Trump's
second presidency as it corresponds to Trump's non-interference
policy agenda. A less active policy of the U.S. in the region will
have less interest in Armenia's pro-Western rhetoric during Prime
Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Accordingly, Azerbaijan will gain more economic interest to
attract more Western and American partners and investments in its
oil and gas, especially given the considerably decreased Russian
contribution caused by the anti-Russian sanctions and the Ukrainian
war.
The Iranian factor is another essential factor that will play a
specific role in the South Caucasus region. In the second of
Trump's presidency, the U.S. withdrew again from the Iran nuclear
deal, and the imposition of significant U.S. economic sanctions
against Iran is apparent, which will bring Azerbaijan a strong
security partner for Israel and the USA on Iran's borders.
Under a potential second Trump administration, the U.S. is
likely to engage more with some countries in the South Caucasus and
disengage with others. The deterioration of business or other
relations with Iran from Armenia and Georgia is evident. These
South Caucasian countries could potentially lose more than they
gain, as they may not receive adequate compensation from the U.S.
for the loss of their business projects with Iran. However, this
situation could present a golden opportunity for Azerbaijan to gain
momentum and secure better energy and security deals with the new
Trump administration," he said.
Touching on the processes related to the region, especially the
Ukraine-Russia war, the expert also emphasized the possibility that
the war will subside if Trump is elected president. However, it is
inevitable that there will be certain conditions in front of the
Kremlin.
"Donald Trump has repeatedly said he could settle the war
between Russia and Ukraine in one day if he is elected president
again. Two key advisers to Donald Trump have presented him with a
plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine that involves telling Ukraine
it will only get more U.S. weapons if it enters peace talks and, at
the same time, warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate would
result in increased U.S. support for Ukraine. The proposed plan
includes a ceasefire based on prevailing battle lines during peace
talks and Moscow accepting to discuss NATO membership for Ukraine.
Republicans and Trump supporters are reticent about paying for more
resources for Ukraine under the plan. The U.S. has spent more than
$70 billion on military aid for Ukraine since the war started.
However, during a podcast interview last week, Trump ruled out
committing U.S. troops to Ukraine and appeared skeptical of making
Ukraine a NATO member. He has indicated he would quickly move to
cut aid to Kyiv if elected, a stance that could significantly
impact the ongoing conflict."
Talking about the multi-vector policy of the USA, Dr. Frank
Musmar drew attention to the situation in the Middle East at the
same time. There are even many experts who think that the Biden
administration is indispensable in solving the Middle East
crisis.
Besides, the potential reshaping of the Middle East crisis under
Trump's presidency is a topic of significant interest and
anticipation. During his first term, Trump's pro-Israel stance
significantly altered the dynamics of the region.
"During his first term, Trump was one of the most pro-Israel U.S.
presidents. He recognized Israel's controversial annexation of the
Golan Heights and the country's capital as Jerusalem, even though
control of Jerusalem has been a sticking point in negotiations
between the Israelis and Palestinians for decades.
This tarnished the U.S.'s ability to act as a credible broker of
negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, who have
increasingly sought diplomatic solutions outside of the peace
process. Nevertheless, Trump has continued to boast of those
measures as proof of his pro-Israel bona fides.
Though he has not elaborated on his plans for a second term,
there is reason to believe that he would advance similar policies,
with his son-in-law and former Middle East adviser, Jared Kushner,
recently suggesting that Gaza's current borders can be altered in
contradiction of current U.S. policy. This could potentially
reshape the Middle East crisis, particularly the situation in Gaza.
"Gaza's waterfront property could be precious," he said in
February.
That said, it is notable that Trump has not highlighted the war as
a top campaign trail issue. Furthermore, that is likely because he
senses where the electorate is at. The fact remains that the war in
Gaza is not a determinative electoral issue for the vast majority
of voters, and even Republicans have soured on it: A majority now
support a permanent ceasefire and de-escalation of violence, even
as they still hold favourable views of Israel," he concluded.
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