ASX 200 Forecast - 13/08: Falls From 50-Day EMA (Chart)
Date
8/13/2024 3:08:57 PM
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
It's easy to see that the Australian equities market still has to deal with the idea of external factors. After all, there are a lot of questions as to what the markets are going to do from a risk appetite standpoint, and that of course has a major influence on what happens in Australia. Australia is highly sensitive to China, and of course the overall Asian economic bloc, as Australia is a major exporter of commodities for those countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.
Technical Analysis
The ASX 200 initially tried to break out above the 50-Day EMA in the early hours on Monday, but then fell rather hard. At this point, it'll be interesting to see whether or not the market is going to continue to see support, but there are a couple of places that I'd be looking at. The first one of course is going to be the 200-Day EMA, sitting right around the 7650 level. As long as we can stay above there, you can make an argument that we are still technically in an uptrend, but we have seen a lot of technical damage done over the last couple of weeks, and therefore I think you've got a situation where there are a lot of questions to be asked about the overall global risk appetite. Australia will not be able to separate itself from the rest of the world in this environment.
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If we are able to break above the highs of the day on Monday, then it's possible that we could go looking to the 8000 level, but at that point I would expect to see a lot of resistance as well. In general, this is a market that shows just how volatile things are going to be, and unfortunately, I think this is going to be the way going forward. The alternate scenario of course is that we break down below the 7600 level, which opens up the possibility of a move down to the 7500 level. Anything below there would be a major disaster for the ASX 200 and its trend.
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