(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
Gold price has surpassed the psychological resistance of $2400 per ounce at the beginning of this week's trading, continuing its gains from the previous session, driven by hopes of US interest rate cuts by the federal Reserve. Last week, the US consumer price index reading for June, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in line with expectations, but the core rate rose by 0.2%, slightly higher than the expected 0.1%.
However, expectations for interest rate cuts remained intact, with markets anticipating a US rate cut at the September meeting and anticipating two more cuts by the end of the year. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also supported safe-haven assets such as gold, following Israel's pledge to respond forcefully to Hezbollah. Israel accused the Iran-backed group of carrying out a strike over the weekend that killed 12 people. However, Hezbollah“strongly” denies involvement in the strike.
As for the factors affecting gold, the dollar price declines as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches. According to electronic trading platforms, the US dollar index DXY fell below 104.3 on Monday, remaining in a sideways trading range over the past week as traders cautiously await the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve. The central bank is widely expected to keep US interest rates unchanged this week, while markets will be looking for clues on how aggressively the Fed will cut rates in the coming months.
Data on Friday showed that the core personal consumption expenditures price index came in in line with expectations, but the core rates came in slightly higher than expected. Also, previous data showed that the US economy expanded faster than expected by 2.8% in the second quarter, led by accelerating consumer demand, but remained below the 2021-2023 average of 3.1%. The US dollar price was also pressured by improved risk sentiment, with global stocks and commodities rising from recent lows. Elsewhere, traders were closely watching the yen's moves amid speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates this week.
Another factor weighing on the gold market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4.2%, sliding back towards its lowest since March, as investors prepared for the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve this week. Again, the US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, while financial markets will be looking for clues on how aggressively the Fed will cut rates in the coming months.
On the stock trading platform front, US stock futures rose on Monday as investors looked ahead to another round of earnings reports from tech giants. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms are all set to report their latest quarterly results this week. Other major companies set to report earnings this week include McDonald's, Starbucks, Boeing, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
Also, markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision this week. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, but traders will be looking for clues on how aggressively the Fed will cut rates in the coming months.
Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83% and 2.08%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Dow and Russell 200 rose 0.75% and 3.5%, respectively, as investors moved away from tech giants and into interest-rate-sensitive stocks such as small-cap companies. Elsewhere, the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index report came in largely in line with expectations for June.
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The recent movement of gold price confirms the strength of our expectations that gold price has the opportunity to return to break the psychological resistance of $2400 per ounce again. Technically, buying gold at every dip is the best trading strategy as global geopolitical tensions and the abandonment of tightening by global central banks create a fertile environment for gold price recovery. Currently, the closest resistance levels are $2422 and $2460 per ounce.
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