(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
At the end of last week's trading, the latest UK data recorded a strong rebound in retail sales for May, but the pound struggled to make significant headway in global markets. According to trading, the pound against the dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell to a 6-week low overnight before recovering slightly to 1.2665 after the data. In the same performance, the pound against the euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate also approached a one-week low at 1.1820.
According to the results of the economic calendar, UK sales volumes jumped by 2.9% in May after a revised 1.8% decline in April, which was originally reported as a 2.3% decline. Clearly, this was much stronger than the consensus forecast for a 1.6% increase. On the other hand, Sales rose 1.0% in the three months to May compared with the previous three months. Sales in April were hurt by bad weather conditions and there were more favorable conditions in May, which helped to spur a recovery. There was a 1.3% annual increase in sales compared with a previous 2.3% decline, but sales are still slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
Non-food store sales volumes jumped 3.5% during the month, the biggest increase since April 2021.
Elsewhere, the latest UK consumer confidence index also improved to -14 for June from -17 the previous month, which was the strongest reading since December 2021.
The Bank of England has hinted that more officials may be moving closer to supporting interest rate cuts, keeping alive hopes of policy easing by the end of the summer. Last week, the Bank of England kept its main lending rate at a 16-year high of 5.25%. But the minutes of the meeting said the decision not to cut rates was“finely balanced” for some of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee.
Investors had been pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a BoE move in August, the first time in more than a month they were certain. Moreover, Governor Andrew Bailey said inflation falling to its 2% target for the first time in nearly three years was“good news,” but officials wanted to make sure the pressure on prices had eased before acting's next for the pound versus the dollar?
The pound is set to weaken against the dollar to levels last seen in May, according to new analysis. ING forex analysts say the BoE will cut rates by a larger margin in 2024 than markets are currently pricing in, which will weigh on sterling. The main focus of sterling weakness will be against the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve is in no position to match the Bank of England's rate cuts. Francesco Bisol, FX strategist at ING said,“We expect most of the sterling weakness to be channeled through GBP/USD , which we expect to trade back below 1.25,”.
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Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
The US dollar has had a quiet week, but“cautious” developments in Europe have helped it maintain its upward momentum. It has gained a third of a percent against the pound over the past week, looking set to post its third straight weekly advance. Also, it is outperforming the euro.
“The US dollar looks set to end the week on a higher note, extending its winning streak into a third week,” said analysts at XM. furthermore, the signs of a slowdown in inflationary pressures and the broader economy have boosted expectations that the US Federal Reserve may be able to deliver two rate cuts after all in 2024, with the first expected in September, other central banks appear to be ahead in the race to ease policy.”
Recently, the pound fell after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged on Thursday but issued a statement saying a number of its Monetary Policy Committee members were close to voting for a cut. Clearly, this has led markets to raise their expectations for a rate cut in August. Moreover, ING adds that it expects three rate cuts in 2024 starting in August. This is more pessimistic than the two cuts that the market has priced in.
Currently, financial markets price in a cut of around 65% in August and are seeing two 25bp cuts this year. According to analysts, central banks in Europe are far ahead of the Federal Reserve in terms of interest rate cuts, which is a positive development for the US dollar, but we doubt that there is enough to push the dollar down significantly at this stage.”
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