China's Comac Poised To Rise On Boeing's Downfall

In March 2019, China became the first nation to ground the 737 MAX. In December 2023, the Chinese government lifted its ban on the delivery of 118 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft that had been ordered by Chinese airlines and aircraft leasing companies.

In January of this year, a MAX 9 aircraft flown by Alaska Airlines created a media sensation when a door plug popped out of the plane and fell into the backyard of a school teacher in Portland, Oregon. Investigations subsequently revealed bolts that were supposed to hold the door in place had not been installed.

This incident resulted in another setback for Boeing as regulators demanded a review of its supply chain and manufacturing procedures, and US Senate hearings put a spotlight on allegations of inadequate quality control and safety procedures.

More recently, on May 22, it was reported that deliveries of Boeing aircraft in China have been delayed again while the Civil Aviation Administration of China investigates the batteries that power their cockpit voice recorders.

Boeing expects to deliver most of its aircraft in inventory by the end of this year but at this point, it is hard to say whether or not this will be possible. If election-year politics lead the Biden administration to sanction Comac, Boeing's quality problems have made it a perfect target for retaliation.

More than a year ago, in April 2023, US Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott of Florida sent a letter to Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Alan Estevez complaining about the department's failure to add Comac to its Military End User list.

The senators wrote that Comac“works closely with Western aerospace companies, including firms that produce jet engines and many other components used in commercial and military aircraft. Given the CCP's [Chinese Communist Party's] commitment to acquire dual-use aerospace technologies through trade as well as forced joint venture and partnerships, these firms, and US national security by extension, are at risk.”

Most major components of the C919 are either imported or made in China by American and European companies working with Chinese partners. The aircraft is powered by the LEAP jet engine, which is manufactured by CFM International, a joint venture between America's GE Aviation and France's Safran Aircraft Engines.

Flight controls, avionics, hydraulics, actuators, fuel systems and landing gear are made in China by local joint ventures with Honeywell, Rockwell Collins, Parker Aerospace and Liebherr.

Aero Engine Corporation of China is developing an alternative to the LEAP jet engine, but recent reports suggest that certification may not come until 2025, if then. About 200 Chinese subcontractors supply the C919's fuselage, wings, forged parts and other basic components and materials.

Comac seeks to avoid the quality problems that have hamstrung Boeing's operations and seriously damaged its reputation. At the beginning of May, the C919 was put through four days of tests by China Eastern Airlines, with the engines, landing gear and instruments receiving special attention.

As a new entrant to the civil aviation industry, rigorous testing is imperative for the C919 to obtain certification and eventually compete for orders outside China.

In February, the C919 and Comac's smaller ARJ21 regional aircraft participated in the Singapore Airshow, after which they made demonstration flights in Malaysia and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Countries in Africa and Latin America, where China has a large economic presence and relatively good political relations, are also obvious Comac target markets.

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The Civil Aviation Administration of China and Comac hope to win approval for the C919 from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency. But the Europeans will reportedly make a very thorough review before validating the C919's Chinese certification, a process that could take up to five years.

Comac is also working on two widebody passenger jets, the C929 and C939. The C929, a 280-seat aircraft in its basic configuration with a range of 12,000 kilometers, would compete with the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350. Its design has reportedly progressed far enough that major components could be ready for assembly in 2027.

The C939, a larger aircraft designed to carry 400 passengers up to 13,000 kilometers, would compete with the Boeing 777 and Airbus A350. It is in the preliminary design stage with a prototype yet to be built.

Within a decade, sanctions or no sanctions, Comac is likely to become a serious competitor for both Boeing and Airbus. But the situation is less serious for Airbus, which is now building its second final assembly line in Tianjin, China.

If US sanctions are imposed, Airbus would probably pick up any orders that Comac was unable to fulfill. Boeing, on the other hand, would not have much of a future in China while US component makers would lose business to an increasingly self-sufficient and self-confident Chinese aircraft engine and components industry.

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