China Struggles To Repurpose The Lessons Of The Pearl Harbor Attack

Chinese commentary on US Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 included a PRC foreign affairs scholar
saying
that, to Chinese people, Pelosi's trip was what the“Pearl Harbor attack was to Americans during World War II.”

A second way the PRC deploys this historical event is as evidence to support Beijing's narrative on US-Japan relations.
The Chinese argue that Americans should view Japan as an enemy (as China does) and that Washington is foolish to support Japan's remilitarization.

According to a China Daily editorial , Washington's misguided policy toward Japan in the 1940s led to the Pearl Harbor attack and Americans are wrong again today in thinking“a re-militarized Japan can act as a guard dog at the door of the Indo-Pacific” – failing to realize that“their imagined guard dog” is actually“a wolf that does not heed the voice of its master.”

Finally, PRC government-affiliated commentators decry as an intentional insult the idea of China possibly launching a Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack.
This is a“smear campaign against China,”
asserts
an unsigned
Global Times
editorial.
“The US military is conducting an act of aggression, and we are justified in self-defense. This is the exact opposite of the nature of the attack on Pearl Harbor.”

“Comparing China to Japan in the Second World War,” says
PRC Ambassador to the US Xie Feng, is tantamount to“demonizing China.” Xie says the fact the comparison is being made confirms that“a whole-of-government and whole-of-society campaign is being waged to bring China down.”

The way China invokes the Pearl Harbor attack reflects PRC interests in upholding Beijing's honor, opposing a militarily strong Japan and imploring the United States to stop supporting the Taipei government.

On the other hand, the main concern of US analysts linking China to Pearl Harbor is to shock Americans into understanding the danger that China might initiate hostilities against the USA.

Rather than an attempt to smear or demonize China, this warning stems from Beijing's standing threat to use military force to annex Taiwan if Taiwan's people choose not to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government.

Whether Beijing likes it or not, China is the aggressor in this scenario.
Claiming that its ownership of the island of Taiwan justifies warring against the people who live on Taiwan is even less inspiring than fascist Japan's claim that it was invading Southeast Asia to liberate the region from Western colonialism.

If the PRC opts to invade Taiwan, it is reasonable to expect the plan will include knocking out nearby US forces. Striking first would give China early momentum.
In this sense the comparison to the Pearl Harbor attack is apt.
Japan tried to destroy the US Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor so the Americans could not interfere with Japanese plans to seize Southeast Asia.

The Chinese would do better to emphasize two other lessons from the US-Japan conflict in the Pacific War that are highly relevant to a hypothetical US-China war.

The Japanese government hoped that a decisive opening blow would persuade Washington to sue for peace and acquiesce to Japan controlling the Asia-Pacific region.
Instead, however, the United States committed itself to fighting and winning a total war against Japan, with the ultimate goal of replacing the Japanese government and political system.

That US commitment to fight despite the expected high cost in blood and treasure was crucially important to the Pacific War's outcome.

Commitment would also matter in a US-China war over Taiwan.
The PRC's threat that it would“pay any price” to unify with Taiwan is credible because the CCP has tied the achievement of this objective to the party's legitimacy to rule China.
For the USA, however, defending Taiwan is optional and the cost is potentially exorbitant.
Advantage: China.

Also crucially important to the outcome of the Pacific War was industrial might.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

The US economy was over five times the size of Japan's economy during the Pacific War.
US industrial capacity was unparalleled.
America produced 300,000 military aircraft, compared with 65,000 for Japan.
The United States built
more ships
in 1941 alone than Japan built during the entire war.
After the Battle of Midway in 1942, in which the Japanese lost four large aircraft carriers, Japan built only six more, while the USA built 17, plus over a hundred escort carriers.

The Americans prevailed over Japan not because of superior skills or equipment, but because Japan could not keep up with US war production.

In a US-China war today, however, it is China that would enjoy superiority in manufacturing capacity.

War gaming suggests the US would run out of long-range precision-guided munitions during a war against China. Moreover, because of shortages of skilled workers and key components, it would take at least two years to significantly increase production rates. China may be deploying advanced weapons up to five or six times faster than America can.

Playing up its advantages
relative to 1941 Japan would serve Chinese attempts to deter Washington from assisting Taiwan. Instead, however,
China may be losing the contest to define the lessons of the Pearl Harbor attack.
The PRC government is failing to drive a wedge between the United States and Japan.
Nor is China persuading Americans that Chinese foreign policy is strictly defensive.

A fair reading of history continues to suggest that the American fear of a figurative second Pearl Harbor attack, with China taking over the role of Japan in the sequel,
is justified.

Denny Roy is a senior fellow in politics and international relations at the East-West Center in Honolulu.