Heavy Rainfall Likely In South, Northeast India Till Saturday

(MENAFN- Live Mint) "New Delhi: As the monsoon trough continues to run along the foothills of the Himalayas, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted heavy rainfall over Northeast India and the extreme Southern Peninsular region. However, this may not make a significant improvement as far as rainfall distribution is concerned, meteorologists said.Heavy isolated rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh on Wednesday; in Assam and Meghalaya from Thursday to Saturday and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura for the next five days. On precipitation in East India for the next five days, the weather office expects light to moderate widespread rainfall or thunderstorm and lightning with isolated heavy rainfall over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on Wednesday and Thursday, and over Odisha on Saturday. Light or moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph reaching up to 50 kmph may cover Andaman & Nicobar Islands from Tuesday to Saturday.“Although rainfall is expected in East and Northeast India for the remaining three days of the month, it may not make up the gap significantly. August spatial distribution in East and Northeast India is expected to close with 6% excessive precipitation,” said Vineet Kumar Singh, a research scientist at Typhoon Research Centre of Jeju National University in South Korea and a former India Meteorological Department scientist. During 1-29 August, rainfall in East and Northeast India was 8% higher than the benchmark long period average (LPA), squeezing the deficiency gap to 16% from 1 June to 29 August. Rainfall in East and Northeast India was patchy in June and July, pushing the deficiency up to 45-50% in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, though it picked up in August. Similarly, South Peninsula and Central India have been in lower-than-normal rainfall category since the start of the four-month monsoon season in June, except in July. The regions recorded 17% and 8% lower than normal rainfall, respectively, including 62% and 42% deficiency, respectively in August alone.IMD expects light or moderate scattered rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal till Friday and over Kerala for the next two days.Hot and Humid weather is likely to prevail over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam and Rayalaseema for the next two days.Rainfall may subdue over the rest parts of the country till Saturday, the weather bureau said.Northwest India is only region that has been receiving more than rainfall since 1 June. Currently, the region recorded 5% above rainfall during 1 June-29 August. However, in August, it received 33% deficient rainfall.This makes the country's rainfall 32% deficient in August alone and 9% lower than LPA from 1 June to 29 August.“August will end somewhere near this as only two more days left,” said Kumar. With this, the country may witness its weakest monsoon in eight years, raising concerns over agriculture corps standing in the field.In its latest soybean crop health monitoring survey report, the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) on Tuesday said,“There has been unprecedented shortfall in rainfall in August and while the crop has held on to its own till date, rains are required immediately. Any delay in rain will be detrimental to the soybean crop in the entire country.”“The extent of yield loss will depend on the revival of rains, and it is premature to predict the overall crop today. All will depend on how the monsoon behaves in the next 45 days,” according to an official statement issued by SOPA.IMD will come up with its forecast for September on 31 August. While presenting rainfall forecast for the second half of monsoon, it predicted the country's rainfall to be on the negative side of the normal at 94%-106% LPA.The June-to-September monsoon, which waters 45% of India's cultivated land, is keenly watched by policymakers, given its influence on India's rural economy and incomes in a pre-election year, when governments remain on alert for any policy intervention. It accounts for over 70% of India's total rainfall, driving a big chunk of India's $3 trillion economy, bringing over a third of the country's annual rains which are crucial for agriculture and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers, besides meeting power demand.

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