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John Deaton, an advocate for XRP, has predicted that the United States securities and exchange commission (SEC) has less than a 3% chance of achieving an unambiguous victory against Ripple as the long-running lawsuit nears its conclusion.
The proprietor of CryptoLaw has been an outspoken defender of Ripple against the SEC, which filed a lawsuit against the company in December 2020, alleging that the sale of XRP tokens constituted an unregistered securities offering.
In the June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, Deaton stated that there is a 25% chance that presiding U.S. District Judge Torres rules in Ripple's favor and a 50% chance that Ripple asserts victory through a“splitting the baby” ruling.
This refers to Judge Torress“drawing a line in the sand,” in which she may declare that XRP was offered as an unregistered security before 2018.
In the wake of the Hinman documents, which refer to internal SEC messages relating to a 2018 speech by former SEC Director William Hinman, it is conceivable that cryptocurrencies could transition from securities to commodities if they become sufficiently decentralized.
“I believe XRP will be declared not to be a security, and secondary market sales demonstrate this.” Even if [Judge Torres] rules that ripple violated the law , this does not apply to secondary market transactions,” Deaton explained.
While Ripple executives, including CEO Brad Garlinghouse, have long predicted that the SEC's rollercoaster litigation would soon be resolved, Deaton emphasized that Judge Torres will likely render a final decision before September 30 of this year.
Deaton drew attention to a“six-month list” that district judges must submit to Congress.
The list includes every summary judgment pending for over six months. The publication is released on the last day of March or September.
In addition, Deaton provided his forecasts for the price of Ripple's native xrp token after a favorable ruling.
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The Ripple community, according to Deaton, should also keep a close watch on June 13, when investors will learn whether or not XRP was discussed“between SEC staff before Hinman's speech.”
On this date, the Hinman materials will presumably be unsealed, which could significantly affect the case.
In addition, there are rumors that Ripple could potentially go public following the lawsuit's conclusion.
According to a June 2 tweet by Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, Ripple held a“road show” where it met with underwriters and other investors to gauge interest in a possible initial public offering .