(MENAFN- AzerNews)
By Orkhan Amashov
In defeat and partial, however superficial, renunciation of its
grandiose ambitions, Armenia has gained a valuable chance to
reshape its selfhood. Despite some half-hearted meanderings aimed
at self-analysis, within the year and a half that has elapsed since
the 10 November ceasefire deal, Yerevan has achieved absolutely
nothing in the department of 'soul-cleansing'. What is now clear is
that the vanquished nation has stumbled upon the thorny path of
maladjustment, somewhat rendering itself irreconcilably at odds
with its own self-interest.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have yet to forge a common understanding
on how to proceed in relation to what is either called the Zangazur
Corridor or the Nakhichevan route - viewed as the central segment
of the post-conflict connectivity agenda by Baku.
Yerevan accepts that Azerbaijan should have access to Nakhchivan
via the Syunik Province, but it remains worried that if Article 9
of the ceasefire agreement is implemented and the Border Guard
Service of the Russian Federal Security Service is responsible for
overseeing the transport connection, Armenia's de facto sovereignty
over its own territory will be curbed.
This is the essence of Yerevan's extraterritoriality angst.
Feigned, semi-genuine, or half-cultivated, it appears to constitute
a major stumbling block on the way to implementing Article 9 of the
10 November deal.
Two platforms
The cumulative impact of the recent developments under the aegis
of the EU and Russia, namely the third trilateral convocation
mediated by Brussels and the 3 June meeting of the trilateral
commission on the unblocking of communications in Moscow, has
reinforced, albeit undramatically and with some reservations, the
centrality of the overland passage connecting western Azerbaijan
with Nakhchivan within the larger connectivity agenda.
The 22 May post-meeting statement of European Commission
President Charles Michel touched upon the 'principles governing'
the route commensurate with the geographical reality of the
Zangazur Corridor. On 31 May, the spokesperson for the EC President
issued a written document, specifying that 'no extraterritorial
claims with regard to future transport infrastructure exists', and
'any speculation to the contrary is regrettable''.
On 3 June, the tenth meeting of the trilateral commission on the
opening of regional transport communications took place, and a
whole range of issues, falling within the scope of connectivity,
including 'possible routes for a highway linking mainland
Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave', were discussed.
For Armenia, if denuded of its“corridor part”, the project is
acceptable and potentially appreciable. Armenian Foreign Minister
Ararat Mirzoyan reiterated there was a common perception that“all
transportation infrastructure and roads to be unblocked must
operate under the sovereignty and legislation of those countries
through which they pass”.
Whilst Armenia continues to flaunt its misgivings, Baku, both on
a rhetorical and practical level, must act decisively. Azerbaijan
expects the Horadiz-Agband railway segment of the Zangazur project
to be fully operational next year. Despite this, there is no
indication that Yerevan has taken any steps towards building the
43-km segment running through its southern portion.
Three Big
In addition to the aforementioned two platforms dealing with the
full spectrum of the Azerbaijani-Armenian interstate normalisation,
the individual lines maintained by three big neighbours of the
South Caucasus – Turkey, Russia, and Iran – are unquestionably of
significance.
Ankara fully backs Baku and has a strong interest in achieving
unrestricted access to Azerbaijan via Armenia. The current transit
route via Georgia, which allows Turkey to connect both with its
first-rate ally and the Caspian Sea, is good, yet it is undeniably
true that a new link via Nakhchivan will be faster and traverse
lowland topography, rendering it far more attractive and
efficient.
Russia's position is unique, as it also a mediator within the
trilateral format originated in the ceasefire agreement. On the
whole, the Kremlin is interested in reconnecting with Armenia via
Azerbaijan, thereby avoiding Georgia, and Article 9 means it will
have an element of control over the proposed route.
Iran, however, begs to differ. The fear preying on the minds of
those in Tehran is that a new link will undermine its access to
fraternal Armenia, as the implementation of the letter and spirit
of Article 9, will amount to a“change of borders”.
This concern was pacified, to some degree, in March of this
year, when Azerbaijan and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding
envisaging the establishment of a new communications route
connecting the East Zangazur Economic Region with Nakhchivan, via
Iran.
However, first things first. Both Baku and Yerevan have to move
on. Many in Armenia are acutely conscious of the insipid vacuity of
staying enmeshed in a lugubrious imbroglio. Deaf and blind to
reason, the revenge-driven opposition prefers running amok and
going berserk. Pashinyan's government is not aimless, but impotent
in achieving its objectives. Baku is unmoved and resolute, but
there are constraints within which its vim and vigour could
operate.
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