(MENAFN- Asia Times)
This month, , continuing arms deals between the two countries that started in 2019. Since then, Turkey has sold Ukraine drone control stations, missiles, with Ukraine placing orders to get at least two dozen more drones.
In October, Ukraine to attack Russian-backed separatists in its occupied territory. The drone launched a guided bomb from within Ukrainian-held territory and destroyed a separatist howitzer in enemy territory. The drone did not need to cross the Line of Contact between Ukrainian and separatist forces.
Further, in September Ukraine and Turkey signed an agreement to establish joint training and drone maintenance centers. The following month, Ukraine announced Turkish drones.
Turkey's drone warfare capabilities first gained international attention after successful operations in Syria and Libya.
In Syria, Turkey used its Bayraktar and Anka drones to on the Syrian Arab Army that threatened the Turkish-backed coalition in Idlib province. In Libya, Turkish drones prevented the Libyan National Army (LNA) from from the Government of National Accord (GNA), which Turkey supports.
However, it was in last year's Nagorno-Karabakh conflict where Turkey's drone program really hit the spotlight.
Azerbaijan used its Turkish drones to decimate Armenian forces, winning back territory it had lost in 1994. Since then, apart from Ukraine, Libya and Azerbaijan have expressed an interest in acquiring Turkish drones, including Qatar, Morocco, Poland, Tunisia and Kyrgyzstan.
The Turkish drone industry traces its , when the US imposed an arms embargo on Turkey for its intervention in Cyprus. That ban was considered a strategic trauma by the Turkish leadership.
For a time, Turkey used Israeli drones. However, of Israeli sabotage to keep Turkey dependent on Israel for maintenance, and also the concern that Israeli drones were secretly relaying information back to Israeli intelligence, compelled Turkey to become self-sufficient in drone technology.
A Bayraktar drone, complete with weapons. Photo: CeeGee – Own work, 4.0 / Wikimedia Commons
Turkey's drones have been billed as a possible in the Ukraine conflict. However, their impact may be overstated for three reasons.
First, the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was a . Azerbaijan's huge oil revenues, diverse arms suppliers, and larger manpower reserves in contrast to Armenia were arguably more important factors than drones.
In the case of Ukraine, Russia's massive energy revenues, high-tech arms industry, vastly larger armed forces and defense present a serious overmatch. However, Russia is unlikely to directly intervene in Ukraine unless NATO openly deploys its forces there.
Plus, Russia's economic woes from Western sanctions are arguably the biggest deterrent against direct intervention.
Second, sanctions against Turkey may prove to be the Achilles' heel of its burgeoning drone industry. Following last year's Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Canada .
Further, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers has called for the to Turkey.
Canada's export ban and the prospects that the US will enact a similar position threaten to leave China as Turkey's only feasible alternative for sourcing critical drone technology.
Turkish Bayraktar drones. Photo: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
Any such dependency on China , as China has been accused of entering into one-sided defense deals in its own favor, stealing sensitive Ukrainian military technology and engaging in predatory practices to purchase Ukrainian strategic defense firms.
Third, improvements in Russian anti-drone technology can blunt the advantage given by Turkish drones in Ukraine. Following the dismal performance of Russia's Pantsir air defense systems in and , Russia has worked quickly on upgrades.
The include improvements to its missiles, stealth and jamming resistance, fire control radar and infrared tracking systems. Also, Russia has been improving its electronic warfare (EW) capabilities with a focus on countering drone swarm attacks.
That said, it is possible such improved technology may find its way into the hands of Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine, nullifying any advantage Kyiv's Turkish drones afford.
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