Date
11/7/2017 4:45:33 PM
(MENAFN- Gulf Times) US President Donald trump is spending nearly two weeks in Asia, visiting
Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Putting China
at the centre of the trip makes sense, because it constitutes the most
important stop in both strategic and economic terms.
North Korea will dominate much of the conversation when Trump is in
China, in large part because he is counting on Chinese leaders to solve
the North Korea problem for the United States. This approach is
understandable, because the bulk of North Korea's trade transits Chinese
territory, and China could exert enormous pressure on the North if it
so chose.
But Trump will likely come away disappointed. China will resist
deploying its full leverage, lest it undermine North Korea's stability
and end up worse off as a result. The irony and potential tragedy of
China's position is that allowing North Korea to increase and improve
its nuclear and missile arsenals could fuel momentum toward war, or lead
South Korea, Japan, or both to reconsider their non-nuclear postures.
Any of these outcomes would be inconsistent with Chinese strategic
interests; but, like many governments, China's leaders will seek to
avoid difficult decisions in the short run, even if this results in
damaging outcomes over time.
The North Korea problem is but one of many on the Sino-US agenda, which
includes other geopolitical matters (most notably, the situation in the
South China Sea and the status of Taiwan). There are also economic
issues that need to be addressed, such as China's failure to respect
intellectual property, its large government subsidies to export-oriented
firms, its restriction of access to its market, and its efforts to
require foreign firms doing business in China to transfer advanced
technology to Chinese firms.
The list of issues dividing these two important and powerful countries
is thus long and difficult, reinforcing the pessimism of those who
predict that the bilateral relationship will continue to sour. One of
the arguments that the pessimists marshal is the historical pattern
whereby rising and established powers tend to end up competing with one
another, or even fighting.
One recent book, by the Harvard political scientist Graham Allison,
focuses on the so-called 'Thucydides Trap, named for the ancient Greek
historian who chronicled the competitive relationship that ultimately
produced the Peloponnesian War between a rising Athens and Sparta, the
superpower of its day. Allison portrays China and the US in these roles,
and calls his book Destined for War.
Such predictions are unwarranted. They discount the dampening effect of
nuclear weapons, which for more than four decades helped keep the Cold
War between the US and the Soviet Union from turning hot. They also
overlook the ability of the US and China to finesse their disagreement
over Taiwan. Diplomacy can and will matter; little is inevitable in
international relations.
Indeed, the US and China have managed to keep their ties on a relatively
even keel, despite the disappearance of the original rationale for
their relationship shared antipathy toward the Soviet Union when the
Cold War ended a quarter-century ago. The extensive economic
relationship that has evolved since then has given both countries a
stake in maintaining good relations. And, given China's need for
external stability to pursue economic development, its leaders have
acted with considerable restraint.
Still, the pessimists' concerns cannot be dismissed. After all,
countries often fail to act in their own self-interest, or events simply
spin out of control.
For example, Chinese leaders may be tempted to act more assertively to
placate public opinion amid a slowing economy, and to take advantage of
opportunities created by a US that has retreated from regional trade
accords.
The stakes are high, as the history of the 21st century will be affected
in no small part by the character of the Sino-American relationship.
Trump, who vacillates between tough criticism of China over trade and
encomiums to President Xi Jinping, will have to balance pressing his
legitimate concerns over trade with the need to avoid starting a trade
war. And Xi will have to judge what he can give to satisfy his American
visitor without jeopardising his or the Party's standing in the eyes of
the Chinese people.
North Korea, though, will be the biggest test. Trump and Xi must find a
way to defuse the looming crisis on the Korean Peninsula or manage the
consequences should diplomacy fail and war erupt. In the latter
scenario, it would be essential that a second Korean War not lead to
direct US-Chinese combat, as the first one did. And co-operation would
be essential to maintain control over North Korea's nuclear materials.
All of this will require deft diplomacy. Trump and Xi, one sincerely
hopes, will soon be laying the groundwork for it. Project Syndicate
* Richard N Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and
author of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of
the Old Order.
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