UN warns of rising nuclear risk amid new arms race

(MENAFN) The world is entering a new era of arms competition as tensions among major powers intensify, bringing the risk of nuclear conflict to its most dangerous level in decades, the UN disarmament chief has warned.

In remarks shared during a forum in Doha, Izumi Nakamitsu, UN Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, said global security has worsened sharply as nuclear-armed nations expand and modernize their arsenals.

“I'm afraid we are actually starting to see an arms race dynamics already. And what's driving that is obviously, the major military powers competing with each other,” Nakamitsu said, emphasizing that while the Russia-Ukraine war has accelerated insecurity, the trend began years earlier with ongoing nuclear modernization programs.

“The security considerations have shifted, especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But this dynamics of arms race actually had started before Ukraine. I think there have already been quite several years of investment in what we call a nuclear weapons modernization programs,” she said.

“I mean, all nuclear weapons states have been investing quite a lot of money in nuclear weapon systems. So, I'm afraid the dynamics is definitely there, which is quite worrying,” Nakamitsu added.

She stressed the severity of the current situation: “I think the risk of nuclear weapons actually being used in conflict is at its highest since the depths of the Cold War.”

“Nuclear weapons states really need to understand that unless they exercise restraints, work on risk reduction measures and make sure that they prevent the use of nuclear weapons, I think we could actually end up in a very disastrous situation,” she warned.

While acknowledging that near-term reductions in warheads are unlikely, Nakamitsu highlighted that disarmament is broader than simply cutting stockpiles.

“It's probably a very difficult proposition to ask for the actual reduction of nuclear weapons at the moment. But disarmament doesn't only mean just a reduction of arsenals,” she said, advocating a phased strategy based on mutual restraint, transparency, confidence-building, and renewed dialogue.

“Build further confidence and create a pathway, if you will, return to nuclear disarmament discussions and negotiations. So not immediately probably reductions per se, but there are other varieties of means in the disarmament toolbox that would lead us to a path back towards nuclear disarmament,” Nakamitsu explained.

Nakamitsu emphasized the importance of immediate steps to reduce nuclear risks, including reliable communication channels to prevent escalation.

“If there is a sign of escalation, there is good communication channels open to de-escalate so that it would not lead to an uncontrollable escalation,” she said, calling such mechanisms “very important.”

“This is in the interest of everyone, all nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states as well, because when it comes to nuclear weapons, it concerns everyone's security,” she added.

The UN official noted that ongoing wars, including those in Gaza and Ukraine, have “a profound impact” on disarmament efforts by eroding trust necessary for multilateral negotiations.

"The multilateral international discussions are quite complex in the sense that they cannot be just a group of states engaged with each other. Across the board, all states have to be involved in those conversations,” she said.

“Conflict and wars and violations of humanitarian principles in one region actually have an impact on all of the other issues, especially when the Global South looks at these issues as a double standard. Then the trust that is really required for multilateral discussions and negotiations will be eroded,” Nakamitsu added.

She warned that this erosion jeopardizes key processes such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review cycle, urging leaders to prioritize the next review conference in 2026.

"Next year is really important because we have the review conference of the NPT," she said, describing the treaty as “the critical pillar… of all the nuclear weapons-related regime.”

Leaders must approach the conference with compromise in mind, she stressed: “Next year is really important because we have the review conference of the NPT. Leaders must come to the NPT review conference with shared interest to producing an outcome document. So diplomacy, reinvesting diplomacy, dialogue and in the spirit of common interests, that is international security for all of us," Nakamitsu concluded.

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