(MENAFN- The Rio Times) A Diwali-thinned week sent a clear signal: inflation eased further without knocking growth off course.

Services kept the global engine running as manufacturing flickered-brighter in Germany, soft in France, mixed in Asia.

Energy inventories tightened modestly, long-end yields drifted lower as auctions cleared smoothly, and households turned a touch more cautious.

The story behind the story: central banks look closer to a long hold not because demand has cracked, but because goods inflation is fading while services-and wages-now decide how gentle the landing can be.
United States
The headline is disinflation with momentum: CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y, while core slowed to 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y.

Yet the real economy still hums-flash PMIs stayed firmly expansionary (manufacturing 52.2, services 55.2, composite 54.8) and existing home sales edged up to 4.06 million.

Consumers turned more cautious (Michigan sentiment 53.6; 1-year inflation expectations 4.6%, 5-year 3.9%).

Oil dynamics reinforced the“soft-landing” feel: crude stocks drew 0.96M barrels, gasoline fell 2.15M as refinery utilization rebounded 2.9 ppts.

Treasury financing was orderly (20-year at 4.506%, 5-year TIPS at 1.182%), and the Fed's balance sheet slipped to $6.59T.

Story behind the story: growth is increasingly carried by services and cooling goods prices-precisely the mix the Fed wants.


Europe and UK
Europe split into two tracks. Germany looks closer to daylight (composite PMI 53.8; services 54.5; manufacturing 49.6) as producer prices fell 1.7% y/y.

France contracted (composite 46.8), but euro-area composite still expanded at 52.2 and consumer confidence improved to −14.2; France's rose to 90.

In the UK, headline CPI eased to 3.8% y/y (core 3.5%), retail sales rose 0.5% m/m, flash PMIs hovered just above 50, and GfK confidence strengthened to −17; the 5-year gilt auction cleared at 4.004%. S

Story behind the story: the ECB and BoE can afford patience; Europe's industrial healing is fragile and uneven, but the consumer picture is a little less bleak.
Asia
Japan's inflation (core 2.9% y/y) meets mixed activity (manufacturing PMI 48.3; services 52.4). Korea held rates at 2.50% as PPI firmed to 1.2% y/y-steady, not hot.

Singapore combined very low inflation (0.7% y/y) with a striking industrial snapback (output up 16.1% y/y, 26.3% m/m), signaling electronics and pharma strength.

Hong Kong remained subdued (CPI 1.1%, unemployment 3.9%). India remained the outlier juggernaut: PMIs 58.4/58.8 and reserves at $702.28B, though infrastructure output cooled to 3.0% y/y.

Story behind the story: Asia's growth engine is shifting-less about broad manufacturing booms, more about targeted tech upturns and resilient services.
Major Emerging Markets
Mexico's August activity rebounded 0.6% m/m and retail sales rose 0.6% m/m while first-half October inflation stayed contained (0.28% headline; 0.18% core).

Brazil posted a wider current-account deficit ($9.77B) but strong FDI ($10.67B); mid-October inflation slowed to 4.94% y/y.

Story behind the story: domestic demand is proving sturdier than many expected, but external balances matter-financing conditions stay critical.
Commodities & Flows
U.S. crude and gasoline draws, a modest rig uptick (total 550), and an 87 bcf build in natural gas point to tighter oil products and comfortable gas.

The euro-area current-account surplus narrowed to €11.9B. Story behind the story: energy is no longer a shock, but it still writes the margin narrative for inflation and growth.
Risks and Framing
The world is edging toward a soft landing: inflation eases without a collapse in activity. The caveat is services-led strength-good for growth, tricky for wages-and Europe's uneven industrial base.

If expectations stay anchored and energy remains orderly, central banks can glide rather than brake; if not, the landing path narrows fast.

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