Kyrgyzstan's Fuel Crisis: How Remote Conflict Hitting Home

(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, September 23. Gasoline and diesel prices in Kyrgyzstan continued to climb in September, extending a trend that began in March, Trend reports, citing the National Statistical Committee.

From January through September, the average price of gasoline RON 95 climbed by 5.5 soms (8 percent), RON 92 jumped by 7.54 soms (12 percent), and diesel inched up by 5.84 soms (8 percent).

These increases are bound to shake things up and cast a wide net of influence. As the cost of getting from point A to point B climbs higher, the price tags on a majority of goods and services are also on the rise, stoking the flames of inflation even when you take the wild swings of food and energy prices out of the equation.

At a press conference on September 2, Kanat Eshatov, chairman of the Kyrgyz Oil Traders Association (KOTA), voiced concerns over the growing pressure on the country's fuel and lubricants market. He pointed out that prices are shooting through the roof thanks to a big drop in supplies from Russian oil traders. The Ministry of Energy reports that 93 percent of Kyrgyzstan's fuel imports come from the Russian Federation.

Analysts link the latest surge to a combination of global oil price increases and disruptions at Russian refineries caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Between August and mid-September, 13 major Russian refineries were hit, with foreign media estimating that Russia had lost 17 percent of its refining capacity by late August. The attacks have since intensified.

In response, the Russian government hit the brakes on gasoline exports starting August 27, planning to keep the lid on things until November. However, they threw a bone to members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), including Kyrgyzstan, allowing them to continue their trade. Even so, members of KOTA warn that supply disruptions remain possible due to reduced Russian refinery output.

Kyrgyzstan's own refining capacity, spread across 10 enterprises, totals around 2 million tons annually-insufficient to cover domestic demand. Eshatov said oil traders are now in talks with suppliers from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Kazakhstan to diversify imports and mitigate the risk of shortages.

These alternatives come with their own set of hurdles to jump over. Kazakhstan, for example, hit the brakes on its gasoline exports on May 19, putting the kibosh on any exceptions for its EAEU partners until November. This ban is expected to be extended for at least another six months to protect its domestic market. Before the ban, exports from Kazakhstan were significant. In the first five months of 2025, Kyrgyzstan purchased 55 thousand tons of gasoline from them, whereas no official supplies were recorded in 2024. The incentive for such trade was clear: a liter of RON 92 fuel was almost two times cheaper in Kazakhstan than in Kyrgyzstan.

All in all, any other option to Russian fuel is fraught with challenges, including winding roads, steep costs, and a missing piece of the puzzle when it comes to infrastructure. As a result, Kyrgyzstan remains heavily dependent on Russian supplies. With the Kyrgyz Oil Traders Association warning that fuel reserves may only last until November, economists Nurgul Akimova and Marat Musuraliev suggest the country has little choice but to brace for continued high fuel prices in the short term.

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