(MENAFN) The chances of ending the Ukraine conflict are stronger now than at any point since the near-settlement in spring 2022, which was derailed by Western intervention. Despite ongoing, though increasingly weak, attempts by Western European leaders to obstruct progress, a breakthrough may be close.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are in a position to pressure both Kiev and its remaining NATO-EU supporters into facing reality: that Russia holds the upper hand on the battlefield, and delaying peace will only lead to greater losses for Ukraine and its Western backers.

While nothing is certain until it happens, the potential consequences of such a peace deal are already being considered. For the 32 European countries tied to NATO and/or the EU, this will likely reshape military policy, foreign relations, and the economy. Predictions of looming Russian attacks on the Baltics or Central Europe may fade, but questions remain: will Europe continue down the path of debt-driven militarization, or rediscover diplomacy and cooperation with Moscow? Will energy costs, deindustrialization, and growing public debt force a reckoning before that shift occurs?

Ultimately, the future will depend on domestic political developments in key European states. The most decisive factor may be the rise of Europe’s “New Right” — a collection of right-populist and nationalist parties gaining momentum across the continent. If the Ukraine war ends largely on Moscow’s terms, with Washington’s support, such an outcome could accelerate political change within the EU and NATO, further strengthening these movements and weakening the traditional establishment.

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