Jpmorgan's Ukraine War Base Case Scenario Coming Into View

2025-08-05 02:01:40

(MENAFN- Asia Times) JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, has a global trends advisory organization called the Center for Geopolitics. One of its recent studies believes the Ukraine war's likely outcome is a mixed deal between Russia and Ukraine without foreign troops or security guarantees.

We may be seeing that outcome develop as Steven Witkoff, President Donald Trump's special envoy, heads to Moscow.

In May, the JPMorgan Chase Center published a brief study titled “The Russia-Ukraine Endgame and the Future of Europe.” The authors, Derek Chollet, managing director and head of the Center, and Lisa Sawyer, executive director for geopolitics, served under Joe Biden at the Defense Department and, in Chollet's case, also at the State Department.

Both are confirmed Atlanticists and liberal in outlook. While not explicitly stated, both served during a period when the US was providing tens of billions in aid to Ukraine – funding military assistance, government salaries, soldiers' pensions and reconstruction efforts.

While the Endgame study received little attention or interest in the United States, it was reportedly taken very seriously by Ukraine's leadership. The“scenarios” outlined in the study were discussed in a recent interview with Kiril Budanov , head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) under the Ministry of Defense.

Budanov is regarded as one of the toughest and smartest operators in Ukraine, and his organization has reputedly carried out assassinations and bombings in Russia and elsewhere.

The study“predicted” that some sort of deal between Ukraine and Russia would be done by the end of Q2 (end of June 2025). That prediction was, of course, wrong. Even so, the study offered four“possible outcomes” for the endgame and suggested the likelihood, expressed in percentage terms, for each of the outcomes.

The four outcomes include a best case called the“South Korea” model, which the authors gave a 15% probability for adoption. The second scenario is called“Israel”, for which the authors assign a 20% chance of success.

The third outcome is called“Georgia,” which the authors say has a 50% chance of acceptance. Finally, there is the fourth outcome,“the worst case”, which the authors called“Belarus.”

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