Ukraine Partition A Possible Option Just Not Kellogg's Version

2025-04-14 08:15:03

(MENAFN- Asia Times) Is a partition plan a realistic outcome for ending the Ukraine war. General Keith Kellogg's proposal appears to have already encountered difficulties. However, that does not mean that some type of partition is out of the question.

Kellogg's“plan” would carve up Ukraine into four zones

British, French, and Ukrainian troops, with the potential for others to join, would make up the first zone, western Ukraine. That zone would stretch from the Polish border to the Dnieper river.
The second zone. East of the Dnieper would be under Ukrainian control, defended by Ukraine's army.
A third zone would be a buffer area with a depth of 18 miles.
A fourth zone would include the Russian“occupied areas” including Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaphorize, Kherson and Crimea. The Kellogg plan does not address the actual boundaries.

The Russians have already said, referring to Kellogg's plan, that putting NATO or NATO-state soldiers in Ukraine is unacceptable.

The Kellogg plan leaves the juridical status of the areas with Russian troops unclear and it leaves Ukraine's army at full strength. One implication of the plan is that the war could re-start at any time.

Taking a step back, it is worth asking what the Russians' end game may be and the likelihood they will achieve it.

The first and clearly the most important point is that the Russians are attempting to restore their relationship with Washington and want to persuade President Trump to support the immediate Russian goal of legitimizing those territories Kellogg puts into the fourth zone.

Were Trump to accede to Russia's territorial objectives, essentially granting de jure legitimacy status to the Russian territorial gains in the war, it would be highly controversial in Congress. Trump would face censure for acquiescing in an illegal invasion of Ukraine.

This is more problematic than Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan, where the US simply left by pulling out its forces. While the Taliban took over as the pro-US Afghan government disintegrated, the US did not recognize the new government or offer any overt concessions to it. Today, the US maintains an Afghan affairs office in Doha, Qatar, but has no diplomatic relations with Afghanistan.

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