East-West Divide Over Plan To Replace US In NATO

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As for the Baltic States, they have a diehard pro-American elite and they'll only realign toward the EU in the event that they're forced to do so by Trump unilaterally curtailing or even totally removing US troops from their territories as part of a grand deal with Russia.

Meanwhile, Romania notably rebuffed France's proposal to extend its nuclear umbrella over the rest of the continent, which can be interpreted as placing more faith in the US than in Europe in the scenario of a crisis with Russia over Moldova .

If these five countries continue perceiving their national interests in these ways, which would require Poland's ruling liberal-globalists not to pivot to France if they win the presidency (their opponents are comparatively more pro-US), then an intra-NATO European rift would emerge.

France and Germany, which are competing amongst themselves and with Poland for leadership of post-conflict Europe , could then find their envisaged influence over Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) challenged by the US.

From Estonia down to Romania and possibly as far as Bulgaria and even Greece, the penultimate of which pivoted to the US long ago against the will of its Russophilic population, while the last needs the US to keep Turkey's maritime claims at bay, NATO's eastern flank would fall under US influence.

This so-called“cordon sanitaire” could then serve the dual purpose of retaining US influence in this geostrategic part of Europe as it“pivots (back) to Asia” while also keeping Western Europe and Russia divided.

That scenario could be offset by Poland's liberals, but barring that, it's predicated on: 1) the CEE countries continuing to perceive Russia as a threat; 2) them considering the US to be more reliable of a security partner than the EU; and 3) the US not voluntarily ceding all its influence in Europe.

If these variables remain constant, then Western Europe might militarily consolidate largely independent of CEE, which CEE countries might still appreciate since it would bolster their“deterrence” strategies.

After all, if America abandons them in the unlikely scenario of a hot NATO-Russian war that somehow stays below the nuclear threshold, then the CEE countries could rely on a militarily consolidated Western Europe to rush to their rescue if they can't stop Russia on their own .