Ukraine's Turkstream Pipeline Attack Sends A Message To Europe

Latest stories

Surveillance tech is changing our behavior – and our brains

In defense of Chinese deflation

China plans to blow Starlink out of the sky in a Taiwan war

Meanwhile, Russia's contract for the transit of its gas across Ukraine expired on December 31 last year and Kyiv refused to consider a new deal. Ukraine's decision was supported by the European Commission, even though the lost imports are equivalent to 5% of European demand.

A key report says that“In 2024, Russian gas reached Europe via three routes: transit through Ukraine (30%), via Turkey and the Turkstream pipeline (31%) and as LNG (39%).”

LNG deliveries come primarily from the US and Russia (with Qatar soon to join in). Neither the US or Russia can increase LNG deliveries to make up for the cessation of transport through Ukraine. Had the Ukrainian attack on TurkStream been successful, over 60% of Europe's imported natural gas supplies would have been cut off.

LNG is more expensive than pipeline gas, and there are problems with transport and transmission overland. Europe has also imposed methane regulations that will impact the use of natural gas and require methane mitigation technology that is not yet available.

The destruction of most of the Nord Stream pipelines (three of the four destroyed), the Ukrainian shutdown and Ukraine's attacks on TurkStream could very well destroy Europe's ability to keep its factories running and homes and businesses heated.

The economic impact has already driven Germany into a recession and helped force the collapse of the Olaf Scholz coalition government. Germany also shut down its nuclear facilities, trying to rely instead on renewables and by burning more coal (even though Germany is supposed to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2035).

Poto: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa/picture-alliance/Newscom

What is hard to understand is what Ukraine is trying to achieve? They have repeatedly attacked nuclear power stations, including on their own territory, that, if successful, could have sent radiation poisoning wafting through Ukraine and Europe, as well as parts of Russia.