'America First' Would Become 'Trump First' In A Second Term

In a second Trump term, such officials – political and career – will be largely missing. When discussing how a second Trump administration would be staffed, Howard Lutnick, Trump 2024 transition team co-chair, said prospective appointees will only be tapped
if they prove“loyalty” to the former president.

Presumably, this means the type of people who were responsible for the achievements of the first Trump term, such as reviving the Quad partnership in 2017 to counter China militarily and diplomatically in the
Indo-Pacific region and implementing Trump's trade war in response to actions by Beijing, will be gone.

RINOs - Republicans in Name Only - will not be tolerated under a Trump 2.0 administration. Recognizing that no one party has a monopoly over lousy choices for political appointees, making loyalty to Trump a requirement for political appointments will necessarily diminish the caliber of his administration.

In the last few months of his first term, Trump issued an Executive Order giving himself new powers to replace thousands of federal workers, including many who work on foreign policy and national security.

What every other administration considered to be dedicated career public servants who worked with political appointees to best implement each administration's policy goals consistent with US law, Trump seems to see as a group of liberal bureaucrats and officials blocking his ability to dictate government policies.

He issued the order to demolish the“Deep State” to give him the power to replace career officials with loyalists. President Joe Biden rescinded the order upon taking office, but Trump would likely resuscitate it as one of his first acts in executive power.

The demolition work to come under Trump 2.0 is already being done. While legally a non-profit, non-partisan institute, The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) is led and staffed by officials in Trump's first term and serves as his government-in-waiting.

This writer has had five meetings with AFPI representatives. In my interactions, its staff have been open to dialogue with US business community representatives. I found many of them smart, dedicated and well-prepared, and I have no doubt they would be effective if in government.

AFPI's policy book states,“Agencies should be free to remove employees for any non-discriminatory reason, with no external appeals.” That means political appointees could fire civil servants for literally any reason, including for defying Trump if they thought his actions illegal or unconstitutional, or for speaking out on government positions they contest, like climate change denial.

If Trump wins a second term, he is not expected to be hands-on in managing foreign policy, meaning diplomatic and national security personnel will be highly responsible for policy.

“The key will be who gets the portfolios to manage issues in the region,” Mike McCurry, White House press secretary under President Bill Clinton who also worked at the State Department, told this writer.

“The career foreign service officers and civil servants I worked with at State were uniformly dedicated to fulfilling administration policies and directives. Losing them will impact the US ability to achieve its foreign policy goals,” McCurry said.

“For the political appointees, I am guessing that those who might be qualified are going to stay away, and those who get jobs will be marginally qualified, and it will take them a year or two to have an impact, but they will,” he added.

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Enter the 'Shallow State'

“As someone who has invested more than 40 years in understanding Asia and thinking about what is best for the region, including 30 years specifically charged with promoting US interests there, I find anxiety about the existence of a 'Deep State' of experienced and hard-working people working for America to be most curious,” Kurt Tong, a former career foreign service officer who served as US ambassador to APEC and US consul-general to Hong Kong, told this writer.

“Do we want a 'Shallow State' in Washington? Why would that be a good thing? It seems the 'Deep State' has served political leaders from both parties well,” he added.

If Trump wins, many expect an exodus of the types of career officials needed to devise and implement policy effectively. If so, they will take with them decades of experience and relationships.

This will not only diminish expertise in policy-making and implementation but will also impact regional officials who have invested years in building relationships with their counterparts in Washington, DC, who until now have remained from administration to administration.

Elections have consequences. If Trump wins a second term, he should have the freedom to implement an America First policy as he sees fit as chief executive.

But an America First policy developed and executed by those loyal first and foremost to the president and without the wisdom and guidance of career foreign service officials in the room would in effect be a“Trump First” policy. It's a new US reality with which Asia's leaders and policymakers may soon need to grapple and contend.

Steven R Okun is CEO of APAC Advisors and has been based in Singapore since 2003. He served in the Clinton administration as deputy general counsel of the US Department of Transportation.

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