The Impending Two-Front War − A Review Of China's War Clouds

(MENAFN- Kashmir Observer)
Book−China's War Clouds− The Great Chinese Checkmate . Author− Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd). Publisher− Bluerose Publishers, 2024

By Anuraag Khaund

No country has grasped the current geopolitical thinking and imagination of India and the world like China. The clashes and skirmishes between the troops of the Indian army and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in
Galwan on June 2020
along the western sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) after 53 years of relative calm have triggered a massive re-evaluation and re-examination of the whole spectrum of relationship between the two Asian powers.
China's War Clouds− The Great Chinese Checkmate
by Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) is a product of the aforementioned re-examination which focuses on the near- and long-term military threat faced by India from China in conjunction with the latter's South Asian ally Pakistan. The background of the book is set by an article published in the pro- Beijing daily
Wenweipo
on 8 July, 2013 which lists the six wars that China is slated to fight in the next 50 years of which three form separate chapters within the book− War for Taiwan in 2025-2030, War for Spratly Islands in 2025-2030 and the Two-Front War against India by China and Pakistan in 2035-2040.

The book begins with a brief but comprehensive description of the topography and geographical features of the territory constituting the People's Republic of China (PRC). Its diverse features such as the Gobi and the Taklamakan Deserts in its north, the Himalayas, Pamirs, Tian Shah and the Karakoram Mountain Ranges in the west, the sub-tropical forests in the south and the 14,500 km coastline in the east are explained not only in terms of their terrain but also the strategic, economic, and military advantages or vulnerabilities offered by the latter. For instance, the eastern part of China including the coastline as well as the North Plain, dubbed as the cradle of Chinese Civilization, is the economic centre and the most populous part of the country which houses the capital Beijing as well as important cities like Tianjin, Jinan, and Zhengzhou. This part is the one most vulnerable to external aggression and any attack in the coastline would cut off China from the rest of the world. Hence, the security of this region is most crucial for Beijing and also constitutes, as per Sodhi, a core reason behind Chinese interest in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as the latter's terrain allows Indian missiles to target the Chinese eastern 'critical belly.'

The next two chapters focus briefly on the trajectory of development in China during the era of Mao Tse Dong and Deng Xiaoping. The major reason behind this is to highlight the importance of economic power in the building of military power as Sodhi begins the chapter on Mao with the American scholar Jon Meacham's quote−“... No great military power has ever remained so without great economic power.”
As per Sodhi, this dictum seems to have been followed in- depth by the Chinese administration as it rose from the famine and impoverished nation of the Mao era to the opening up and setting up of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) during the Deng era (also known as the period of
Boluan Fanzheng
or 'Setting Things Right'/ economic prosperity) and onward to becoming the second-largest economy today.

The link between military and economic power is explored in the fourth chapter which focuses on the era of Xi Jinping from his ascendancy in 2012 till date. Underpinned by the economic rise and success since the Deng era and the confidence of having weathered the 2008 financial crisis with relatively little damage as compared to the West, Xi Jinping believed that the time had come to realise the
China Dream
or the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation to become a 'modern, prosperous, and strong socialist nation'. It was under Xi that the PLA underwent significant reforms including theaterization of the Military Commands, enhancement of the Chinese nuclear arsenal and the expansion of its PLA Navy and naval capabilities including shipbuilding capacity even surpassing the US Navy in 2023. Most importantly, it was under Xi that in 2014 the PLA declared in its military doctrine declared its ability to fight a war with any country in all six domains− land, sea, air, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum, and space. Given the importance of the latter three domains in today's wars, China established the PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) in 2015 and invested heavily in the development of manufacturing capabilities as well as Research & Development (R&D) in fields such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), aerospace, semiconductors, 5G technology and biotechnology under programs such as the
Made in China 2025
and the
New Generation AI Development Plan of 2030− highlighting the linkage between R&D, economic and military power. Further buttressing the linkage between economic and military is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) announced by Xi in 2013 which envisages re-connecting the continents of Asia, Africa, and Europe through mega-investment projects such as ports, roads, bridges, railway lines and dams. Supported by surplus Chinese capital and over-capacity, BRI projects such as the flagship China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) connecting the Pakistani port of Gwadar with the Xinjiang province and the development of ports along the Indian Ocean such as Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Cox Bazar in Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar are aimed at encircling India on both land and sea under the garb of economic investments by Beijing.

The next two chapters focus on the wars over Taiwan and Spratly Islands in 2027 and 2029 respectively as per Sodhi. On Taiwan, along with external strategic reasons, Sodhi opines that the attack on Taiwan would be necessitated by two major internal factors – to provide justification
before the National Congress of 2028 for the amendments to the Chinese Constitution and the removal of presidential terms by Xi Jinping back in 2018 and to cement the legacy of Xi Jinping on the lines of Mao and Deng in Chinese consciousness as the latter, around 71 years of age, grows old with not much time left (the average life expectancy of a Chinese male being 78 years). After having annexed Taiwan, the PLAN would next set out to turn the South China Sea (SCS) into a 'Chinese lake' which would allow Beijing greater control over its resources as well as the major Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC)s such as the Malacca. Here, Sodhi also opines that by this time in 2029, China would have become the largest trading partner with most of the countries and hence would be able to tide over the US sanctions over Taiwan and the Spratley.

The seventh chapter focuses on the two-front war to be waged by China and Pakistan on India which constitutes one of the most expansive chapters. As a prelude, the first sections focus on the uneasy and conflicted nature of Indo- Pakistani and Sino- Indian ties since 1947 and 1962 respectively culminating in the Galwan clashes of 2020. Here, Sodhi opines that the two major reasons behind the current Chinese aggression in Ladakh are the increasing
Indo- US defence and security partnership
which gained traction under PM Modi and the abrogation of Article 370 ending the special status of the erstwhile Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and its transformation into a Union Territory (UT) along with Ladakh. With reference to the Chinese suspicion of Indo- US convergence on China, Sodhi could be said to have views similar with those of Shyam Saran whose work
How China Sees India and the World

published in 2022 mentions about the Chinese fear and paranoia of a possible US assault from Indian soil. The section on the two-front war against India in 2035 is laid in the backdrop of increasing military to military ties between the Pakistani Army and the PLA including posting of
Pakistani officers in Western Theatre Command
as well as the regular presence of
PLA troops in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK)
including Gilgit Baltistan since 2010. Along with its control over ports such as Hambantota, Gwadar and Kyaukphu, the PLA assault on India in 2035 will be staged from both the land along with Pakistan and by the sea by the PLAN after China has compromised Indian cyber and intelligence capabilities in the cyber, space and electromagnetic spectrum in the initial stage of the war. The threat of such a two-front war has also been expressed by Ambassador Vijay Gokhale who opined of a
'strategic squeeze' against India
from the land and the sea by China after the annexation of Taiwan.

The last chapter constitutes the most important part of the book providing recommendations for the world and particularly India on how to counter the Chinese checkmate. Having established the link between China's increasing military capabilities and its economic clout, Sodhi calls upon countries to curtail its economic and trade dependence on China− echoes of which can be seen in the calls for
'de-risking'
as well as in initiatives such as
'China plus one' . In the case of India, while lauding the spirit behind initiatives such as
Make in India
and
Atmanirbhar Bharat
(Self- Reliant India) as well as the success achieved in critical areas such as the
defence sector , Sodhi also focuses on the still continuing Indian trade dependency with China which stood at an all-time high of 136.2 billion USD in 2023. This situation is further compounded by the dependency of industries such as electronics, renewable energy and pharmaceuticals in India upon imports of components such as
batteries and circuits and pharmaceutical inputs from China,
thereby also compromising the 'de-risking' strategy. Here, Sodhi calls upon all sectors of the Indian economy as well as businessmen to put national security over profits and try to either import the same components from other countries or substitute them with domestic developments. The need to diversify and reduce supply chain reliance on China became urgent in the eve of the recent pager blasts in Lebanon believed to have been caused by the compromising of the
pagers' supply chain allegedly by Israel.

Who knows China might be tempted to do the same in India during the war in 2035?

Along with the above, Sodhi also calls for India to increase its spending on R&D especially in the fields of AI and disruptive technologies while also calling for a hike in defence spending of all the nations, who along with India will face China in the battlefield− Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea in the hope that increased combat potentialities of the latter would prevent the war in Taiwan or Spratly Islands from ever taking place. Sodhi goes even further to call for the formation of a military alliance between these six nations along with the USA. However, it would seem far-fetched for the time being given the diverse equations or relationship existing between China and each of these countries individually which range from confrontation, competition to balancing and hedging. For instance, India itself has been called out for its hesitation to openly declare the Chinese threat within groupings such as
QUAD.

Finally, Sodhi spells out India-specific measures for New Delhi to counter China. The first and foremost is the clarion call to not let internal fissures of the country be utilised by the dis-information and propaganda machines of China and Pakistan. In this regard, he also rightly calls out the politicians to reduce the tenor of their election rhetoric which might deepen the fissures of caste, race, and religion. Secondly, he calls for the adoption of a whole-of-a nation approach to counter China by including not just the government and armed forces but even private business players and
the common citizenry and to that end proposes the formal adoption of a
National Security Strategy (NSS)
in the public domain. Lastly, given his own experience in the Indian Army, Sodhi then focuses on the reforms to be undertaken by the Armed Forces including re-examining the pros and cons of the 2022
Agnipath
recruitment scheme and the withdrawal of Army personnel from Counter- Insurgency Operations (CI Ops) in order to focus more on honing their combat potential, preparedness and skills for the impending two-front war mentioned above. In addition, Sodhi unequivocally declares that India should treat China as the main threat with Pakistan being a subset of this threat and not vice-versa as still done by certain media channels and politicians.

The easy, accessible language and the lucid explanation of complex geopolitical and military concepts makes this book a must read for every aware citizen of India, ranging from a policymaker to a college going student.

• Anuraag Khaund is pursuing PhD in International Politics (IP), School of International Studies (SIS), Central University of Gujarat (CUG). He can be reached at [email protected]

MENAFN07102024000215011059ID1108754759