Thailand Buying Gripens To Keep Myanmar In Check

However, it points out that the RTAF will face significant challenges with this acquisition, including the high costs associated with purchasing, operating and maintaining the advanced jets.

As Myanmar's junta has leveraged its airpower to bombard opposition forces and continues to modernize its air force with assistance from China and Russia, Thailand faces the threat of increased air incursions into its territory by Myanmar's more capable combat aircraft.

Anthony Davis mentions in a January 2023 article for Asia Times that the Myanmar Air Force's (MAF) new capabilities, including new Sukhoi SU-30 jets from Russia and Chinese FTC-2000Gs, are central to the junta's strategy.

He notes that the MAF has ramped up daily sorties since mid-2022, targeting opposition forces in Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Shan and Chin states. Davis says the Myanmar junta aims to break the resolve of the federal-democratic armed opposition and divide ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) from Bamar-led Peoples Defense Forces (PDFs).

Davis points out that the MAF's diverse fleet, including older Russian Mig-29s and Chinese F-7s, has been bolstered by new acquisitions, enhancing its operational flexibility. He adds that the MAF's increased pilot experience and tactical flexibility, supported by numerous airbases, have improved targeting accuracy.

Thailand has shown a restrained response to previous incursions by Myanmar into its airspace, not for lack of interception capability but because of political considerations.

In a December 2022 article in the peer-reviewed Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, Kridsana Chotisut and other writers mention that the Thai government was criticized for its muted response to a June 2022 incident in which a Myanmar MiG-29 fighter jet breached Thai airspace.

Chotisut and others say that while the RTAF issued a strong initial press release warning against further violations, then-prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha downplayed the incident, labeling it a minor issue and accepting Myanmar's explanation of an unintentional error.

Chotisut and others say Thailand's reaction is thought to have been influenced by its political and economic ties with Myanmar's military and ethnic armed groups. They note that this may have led to the Thai government's calculated decision to maintain stability in the border region and protect broader national interests.

Beyond addressing the possible aerial spillover from Myanmar's civil war, Thailand's acquisition of Gripen E/F jets and its balanced defense diplomacy with the US and China reflect its broader effort to modernize its military while maintaining sovereignty in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific.

In a 2024 article for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs (JIPA), Paul Chambers says that Thailand's approach to military acquisitions and participation in international exercises reflects a nuanced defense diplomacy strategy, balancing relationships with the US and China.

Chambers says that historically Thailand has acquired military equipment, including fighter jets, from various suppliers, primarily the US.

However, Alyssa Chen notes in a South China Morning Post (SCMP) article this month that US-Thai ties were strained following the latter's 2014 coup, which overthrew a democratically elected government. Chen says that as the US suspended joint military exercises and symbolically withheld $3.5 million in military aid, China stepped in to fill the void.

She points out that Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data shows that Thailand's purchases from China have increased since 2014, with the latter selling big-ticket items such as submarines, anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and armored fighting vehicles.

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Chen mentions that while China and Thailand have broadened the scope of their military exercises, she says they are less complex than those Thailand conducts with the US.

In line with that, David Axe says in an October 2021 article for The National Interest (TNI) that during Exercise Falcon Strike 2015 between China and Thailand, Thai pilots shot down 42 J-11s while the Chinese pilots with their J-11s downed 34 Gripens.

Axe notes that while the Chinese J-11s had the advantage in within-visual-range (WVR) dogfights, the Gripens had the advantage in beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat, with 88% of Thai kills happening at 30 kilometers compared to just 14% of Chinese kills. He adds that the Gripens scored ten kills at 49 kilometers while the J-11s scored none at that range.

Thailand used its Gripens instead of F-16s because the US has prohibited Thailand from using its F-16 and F-5 fighters in military exercises with China.

Chambers notes that Thailand's defense diplomacy has evolved from a strategy of“bending with the wind” to a more calculated policy of hedging aimed at maintaining a balance between major powers, especially the US and China.

He says this dual engagement is exemplified by Thailand's involvement in joint military exercises like Cobra Gold with the US and Blue-Strike and Falcon Strike exercises with China.

Chambers states that Thailand's strategy of balancing relations with major powers enhances its military capabilities and regional influence while avoiding reliance on any single ally to safeguard its sovereignty as Southeast Asia is increasingly caught in the middle of US-China competition.

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